Anthropic's latest Claude models, including variants like Fable 5 and Mythos 5, have driven the near-certain market consensus by posting leading overall scores on LiveBench's contamination-free categories such as coding, reasoning, and agentic workflows as of late August 2026. These releases built on prior Claude iterations with demonstrated gains in multi-step tool use and large-context handling, outpacing competitors on the dynamic leaderboard snapshots. Trader positioning reflects skin-in-the-game recognition of Anthropic's consistent edge in verified benchmarks. A last-minute model update from OpenAI's o-series or GPT-5 family, or a shift in LiveBench's evaluation criteria before final August resolution, could still narrow or reverse the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 100.0%
Meta <1%
Google <1%
Alibaba <1%
$30,118 Vol.
$30,118 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
Yes
Meta
No
No
Alibaba
No
Moonshot
No
OpenAI
No
Baidu
No
Z.ai
No
Xiaomi
No
SpaceXAI
No
DeepSeek
No
Amazon
No
ByteDance
No
Nvidia
No
Thinky
No
MiniMax
No
Mistral
No
Meituan
No
Tencent
No
StepFun
No
Microsoft
No
Anthropic 100.0%
Meta <1%
Google <1%
Alibaba <1%
$30,118 Vol.
$30,118 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$10,464 Vol.
Yes
Meta
$1,009 Vol.
No
$695 Vol.
No
Alibaba
$695 Vol.
No
Moonshot
$666 Vol.
No
OpenAI
$2,274 Vol.
No
Baidu
$760 Vol.
No
Z.ai
$1,234 Vol.
No
Xiaomi
$604 Vol.
No
SpaceXAI
$1,635 Vol.
No
DeepSeek
$1,831 Vol.
No
Amazon
$946 Vol.
No
ByteDance
$781 Vol.
No
Nvidia
$950 Vol.
No
Thinky
$589 Vol.
No
MiniMax
$852 Vol.
No
Mistral
$758 Vol.
No
Meituan
$897 Vol.
No
Tencent
$948 Vol.
No
StepFun
$989 Vol.
No
Microsoft
$541 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's latest Claude models, including variants like Fable 5 and Mythos 5, have driven the near-certain market consensus by posting leading overall scores on LiveBench's contamination-free categories such as coding, reasoning, and agentic workflows as of late August 2026. These releases built on prior Claude iterations with demonstrated gains in multi-step tool use and large-context handling, outpacing competitors on the dynamic leaderboard snapshots. Trader positioning reflects skin-in-the-game recognition of Anthropic's consistent edge in verified benchmarks. A last-minute model update from OpenAI's o-series or GPT-5 family, or a shift in LiveBench's evaluation criteria before final August resolution, could still narrow or reverse the gap.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$30,118End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's latest Claude models, including variants like Fable 5 and Mythos 5, have driven the near-certain market consensus by posting leading overall scores on LiveBench's contamination-free categories such as coding, reasoning, and agentic workflows as of late August 2026. These releases built on prior Claude iterations with demonstrated gains in multi-step tool use and large-context handling, outpacing competitors on the dynamic leaderboard snapshots. Trader positioning reflects skin-in-the-game recognition of Anthropic's consistent edge in verified benchmarks. A last-minute model update from OpenAI's o-series or GPT-5 family, or a shift in LiveBench's evaluation criteria before final August resolution, could still narrow or reverse the gap.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$30,118End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Anthropic's latest Claude models, including variants like Fable 5 and Mythos 5, have driven the near-certain market consensus by posting leading overall scores on LiveBench's contamination-free categories such as coding, reasoning, and agentic workflows as of late August 2026. These releases built on prior Claude iterations with demonstrated gains in multi-step tool use and large-context handling, outpacing competitors on the dynamic leaderboard snapshots. Trader positioning reflects skin-in-the-game recognition of Anthropic's consistent edge in verified benchmarks. A last-minute model update from OpenAI's o-series or GPT-5 family, or a shift in LiveBench's evaluation criteria before final August resolution, could still narrow or reverse the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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