Anthropic's strong position at 87% implied probability stems from its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants posting leading or near-top overall scores on recent LiveBench snapshots, particularly in reasoning, coding, and agentic categories. These results reflect ongoing refinements in large language model scaling and benchmark performance that have outpaced OpenAI's GPT-5 and o-series entries, which sit at 12% amid mixed leaderboard placements. With resolution just days away on September 30, limited scope remains for new releases or updates to shift the dynamic leaderboard, though volatility from max-effort configurations or fresh model drops by Google, Meta, or Chinese labs like DeepSeek could still influence the final check. Traders view the current edge as durable given Anthropic's recent demonstrated capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 87%
OpenAI 12.2%
Meta <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$64,529 Vol.
$64,529 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
87%
OpenAI
12%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 87%
OpenAI 12.2%
Meta <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$64,529 Vol.
$64,529 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$20,026 Vol.
87%
OpenAI
$15,631 Vol.
12%
Meta
$2,967 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,830 Vol.
1%
$2,677 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$2,307 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$2,171 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$706 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,337 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$989 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,724 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$836 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$681 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$790 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$722 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,233 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$2,467 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,108 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$806 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$488 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,031 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's strong position at 87% implied probability stems from its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants posting leading or near-top overall scores on recent LiveBench snapshots, particularly in reasoning, coding, and agentic categories. These results reflect ongoing refinements in large language model scaling and benchmark performance that have outpaced OpenAI's GPT-5 and o-series entries, which sit at 12% amid mixed leaderboard placements. With resolution just days away on September 30, limited scope remains for new releases or updates to shift the dynamic leaderboard, though volatility from max-effort configurations or fresh model drops by Google, Meta, or Chinese labs like DeepSeek could still influence the final check. Traders view the current edge as durable given Anthropic's recent demonstrated capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$64,529End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's strong position at 87% implied probability stems from its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants posting leading or near-top overall scores on recent LiveBench snapshots, particularly in reasoning, coding, and agentic categories. These results reflect ongoing refinements in large language model scaling and benchmark performance that have outpaced OpenAI's GPT-5 and o-series entries, which sit at 12% amid mixed leaderboard placements. With resolution just days away on September 30, limited scope remains for new releases or updates to shift the dynamic leaderboard, though volatility from max-effort configurations or fresh model drops by Google, Meta, or Chinese labs like DeepSeek could still influence the final check. Traders view the current edge as durable given Anthropic's recent demonstrated capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$64,529End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's strong position at 87% implied probability stems from its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants posting leading or near-top overall scores on recent LiveBench snapshots, particularly in reasoning, coding, and agentic categories. These results reflect ongoing refinements in large language model scaling and benchmark performance that have outpaced OpenAI's GPT-5 and o-series entries, which sit at 12% amid mixed leaderboard placements. With resolution just days away on September 30, limited scope remains for new releases or updates to shift the dynamic leaderboard, though volatility from max-effort configurations or fresh model drops by Google, Meta, or Chinese labs like DeepSeek could still influence the final check. Traders view the current edge as durable given Anthropic's recent demonstrated capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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