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Politics·Israel

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

icon for Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
Politics·Israel

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$624,966 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$624,966 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for United States

United States

$16,213 Vol.

6%

icon for Italy

Italy

$15,147 Vol.

14%

icon for The Netherlands

The Netherlands

$49,466 Vol.

22%

icon for Japan

Japan

$39,870 Vol.

27%

icon for Germany

Germany

$66,145 Vol.

6%

icon for Belgium

Belgium

$66,398 Vol.

22%

icon for Finland

Finland

$37,696 Vol.

12%

icon for Austria

Austria

$171,860 Vol.

3%

icon for Greece

Greece

$45,092 Vol.

11%

icon for New Zealand

New Zealand

$117,080 Vol.

20%

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.No new countries have recognized Palestine as a state in the eight months since September 2025, when France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Luxembourg, Malta, and San Marino elevated the total to 157 of 193 UN members amid UN General Assembly diplomacy on a two-state solution, driving trader consensus toward low implied probabilities for remaining holdouts before December 31, 2026. Major non-recognizers including the United States (8%), Germany (6%), Italy (16%), Japan (31%), and the Netherlands (21%) condition formal diplomatic recognition on direct Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, Hamas exclusion from governance, and hostage releases. With no notable developments in the past 30 days, traders monitor EU foreign ministers' meetings, national elections in holdout states, and potential ceasefire progress through year-end that could alter foreign policy postures.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$624,966
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.No new countries have recognized Palestine as a state in the eight months since September 2025, when France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Luxembourg, Malta, and San Marino elevated the total to 157 of 193 UN members amid UN General Assembly diplomacy on a two-state solution, driving trader consensus toward low implied probabilities for remaining holdouts before December 31, 2026. Major non-recognizers including the United States (8%), Germany (6%), Italy (16%), Japan (31%), and the Netherlands (21%) condition formal diplomatic recognition on direct Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, Hamas exclusion from governance, and hostage releases. With no notable developments in the past 30 days, traders monitor EU foreign ministers' meetings, national elections in holdout states, and potential ceasefire progress through year-end that could alter foreign policy postures.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$624,966
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Japan" at 27%, followed by "The Netherlands" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" has generated $625K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" is "Japan" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "The Netherlands" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.