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Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

icon for Who will advance from the California Governor primary?
Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

$662,993 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$662,993 Vol.

Polymarket

Steve Hilton

$42,241 Vol.

74%

Xavier Becerra

$14,026 Vol.

68%

Tom Steyer

$26,279 Vol.

54%

Matt Mahan

$23,136 Vol.

7%

Javen Allen

$1,161 Vol.

5%

Chad Bianco

$34,432 Vol.

4%

Jimmy Parker

$1,453 Vol.

3%

Kyle Langford

$11,755 Vol.

3%

Katie Porter

$11,692 Vol.

2%

David Thelen

$1,327 Vol.

2%

Ryan Tillman

$1,991 Vol.

2%

Daniel Mercuri

$10,772 Vol.

2%

Ché Ahn

$18,442 Vol.

2%

Thunder Parley

$53,760 Vol.

2%

Ian Calderon

$114,143 Vol.

2%

Ethan Agarwal

$3,522 Vol.

1%

Zoltan Istvan

$12,280 Vol.

1%

Betty Yee

$5,090 Vol.

1%

Raji Rab

$7,425 Vol.

1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$13,394 Vol.

1%

Brandon Jones

$42,159 Vol.

1%

Carolina Buhler

$8,811 Vol.

1%

Leonard Jackson

$3,821 Vol.

1%

Butch Ware

$8,550 Vol.

1%

Sophia Brink

$37,863 Vol.

1%

Derek Grasty

$23,467 Vol.

1%

Eric Swalwell

$73,919 Vol.

1%

Nicholas Thompson

$7,072 Vol.

1%

Elaine Culotti

$525 Vol.

1%

David Serpa

$4,924 Vol.

1%

Ramsey Robinson

$4,581 Vol.

1%

Nicki Minaj

$4,055 Vol.

1%

Tony Thurmond

$12,064 Vol.

1%

Leo Zacky

$6,433 Vol.

1%

Dylan Colbert

$14,920 Vol.

1%

Sharifah Hardie

$1,506 Vol.

<1%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.California's June 2 top-two primary for governor features a crowded field of Democrats and a smaller Republican slate in a state where the two highest vote-getters advance regardless of party. A fragmented Democratic vote has kept Republican Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco competitive in recent Emerson polling, though President Trump's April endorsement of Hilton has begun consolidating conservative support and lowered the odds of a Republican-only runoff. Leading Democrats include former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, who edged ahead in the latest survey, billionaire Tom Steyer, and former Representative Katie Porter, while Eric Swalwell's April withdrawal after misconduct allegations shifted some support toward Becerra. The race remains fluid with two weeks until ballots are cast, and late shifts among undecided voters or additional endorsements could determine the final pair.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$662,993
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.California's June 2 top-two primary for governor features a crowded field of Democrats and a smaller Republican slate in a state where the two highest vote-getters advance regardless of party. A fragmented Democratic vote has kept Republican Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco competitive in recent Emerson polling, though President Trump's April endorsement of Hilton has begun consolidating conservative support and lowered the odds of a Republican-only runoff. Leading Democrats include former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, who edged ahead in the latest survey, billionaire Tom Steyer, and former Representative Katie Porter, while Eric Swalwell's April withdrawal after misconduct allegations shifted some support toward Becerra. The race remains fluid with two weeks until ballots are cast, and late shifts among undecided voters or additional endorsements could determine the final pair.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$662,993
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Steve Hilton" at 74%, followed by "Xavier Becerra" at 68%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" has generated $663K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is "Steve Hilton" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Xavier Becerra" at 68%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.