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Politics·Primaries

ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Joe Baldacci 75%

Matthew Dunlap 19%

Paige Loud 4.7%

Jordan Wood 3.4%

Polymarket

$14,954 Vol.

Joe Baldacci 75%

Matthew Dunlap 19%

Paige Loud 4.7%

Jordan Wood 3.4%

Polymarket

$14,954 Vol.

Joe Baldacci

$4,584 Vol.

75%

Matthew Dunlap

$3,886 Vol.

19%

Paige Loud

$364 Vol.

5%

Jordan Wood

$3,210 Vol.

3%

Jared Golden

$2,909 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Joe Baldacci leads the June 9 Democratic primary for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District largely because of his May 4 endorsement from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which placed him on its Red to Blue list and unlocked additional fundraising and organizational resources for the open seat. As a three-term state senator and former Bangor mayor with deep local ties and a family legacy in statewide office, Baldacci has maintained strong early polling and fundraising advantages over rivals Matthew Dunlap, Paige Loud, and Jordan Wood. The remaining candidates have criticized the national endorsement as outside interference, while Dunlap has drawn some progressive support and all four contenders are preparing for ranked-choice voting in the primary. Trader consensus reflects these recent developments positioning Baldacci as the clear frontrunner ahead of the June contest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$14,954
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Joe Baldacci leads the June 9 Democratic primary for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District largely because of his May 4 endorsement from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which placed him on its Red to Blue list and unlocked additional fundraising and organizational resources for the open seat. As a three-term state senator and former Bangor mayor with deep local ties and a family legacy in statewide office, Baldacci has maintained strong early polling and fundraising advantages over rivals Matthew Dunlap, Paige Loud, and Jordan Wood. The remaining candidates have criticized the national endorsement as outside interference, while Dunlap has drawn some progressive support and all four contenders are preparing for ranked-choice voting in the primary. Trader consensus reflects these recent developments positioning Baldacci as the clear frontrunner ahead of the June contest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$14,954
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Joe Baldacci" at 75%, followed by "Matthew Dunlap" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $15K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Joe Baldacci" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Matthew Dunlap" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.