Recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer since March, has elevated trader expectations for additional changes ahead of the 2026 midterms. Tulsi Gabbard leads at 39.5% amid April reports of White House discussions about her replacement as director of national intelligence, tied to clashes over Iran-related testimony and deputy oversight that diverged from administration priorities. Howard Lutnick follows at 27.6% due to ongoing scrutiny of his Commerce Department role and family business associations. The 25% probability assigned to no further departures before 2027 reflects official statements of continuity and the absence of confirmed plans, while lower odds for figures like Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth align with their alignment on core policy fronts and lack of recent friction signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTulsi Gabbard 39%
None before 2027 25%
Howard Lutnick 15.0%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 Vol.
$11,675 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
39%
None before 2027
25%
Howard Lutnick
28%
Scott Bessent
14%
Susie Wiles
24%
Marco Rubio
18%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Chris Wright
22%
Brooke Rollins
3%
John Ratcliffe
3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Tulsi Gabbard 39%
None before 2027 25%
Howard Lutnick 15.0%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 Vol.
$11,675 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
$3,210 Vol.
39%
None before 2027
$223 Vol.
25%
Howard Lutnick
$2,009 Vol.
28%
Scott Bessent
$233 Vol.
14%
Susie Wiles
$326 Vol.
24%
Marco Rubio
$294 Vol.
18%
Pete Hegseth
$628 Vol.
4%
Chris Wright
$390 Vol.
22%
Brooke Rollins
$218 Vol.
3%
John Ratcliffe
$259 Vol.
3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$333 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$415 Vol.
2%
Russell T. Vought
$268 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$352 Vol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$270 Vol.
1%
Lee Zeldin
$294 Vol.
1%
Doug Burgum
$281 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$318 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$321 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$325 Vol.
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$475 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$233 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer since March, has elevated trader expectations for additional changes ahead of the 2026 midterms. Tulsi Gabbard leads at 39.5% amid April reports of White House discussions about her replacement as director of national intelligence, tied to clashes over Iran-related testimony and deputy oversight that diverged from administration priorities. Howard Lutnick follows at 27.6% due to ongoing scrutiny of his Commerce Department role and family business associations. The 25% probability assigned to no further departures before 2027 reflects official statements of continuity and the absence of confirmed plans, while lower odds for figures like Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth align with their alignment on core policy fronts and lack of recent friction signals.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
Volume
$11,675End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer since March, has elevated trader expectations for additional changes ahead of the 2026 midterms. Tulsi Gabbard leads at 39.5% amid April reports of White House discussions about her replacement as director of national intelligence, tied to clashes over Iran-related testimony and deputy oversight that diverged from administration priorities. Howard Lutnick follows at 27.6% due to ongoing scrutiny of his Commerce Department role and family business associations. The 25% probability assigned to no further departures before 2027 reflects official statements of continuity and the absence of confirmed plans, while lower odds for figures like Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth align with their alignment on core policy fronts and lack of recent friction signals.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$11,675End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer since March, has elevated trader expectations for additional changes ahead of the 2026 midterms. Tulsi Gabbard leads at 39.5% amid April reports of White House discussions about her replacement as director of national intelligence, tied to clashes over Iran-related testimony and deputy oversight that diverged from administration priorities. Howard Lutnick follows at 27.6% due to ongoing scrutiny of his Commerce Department role and family business associations. The 25% probability assigned to no further departures before 2027 reflects official statements of continuity and the absence of confirmed plans, while lower odds for figures like Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth align with their alignment on core policy fronts and lack of recent friction signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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