Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois maintaining a lead near 30% while the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec has fallen sharply to 16-19%, opening a path for the PQ to capture enough seats for a majority under first-past-the-post rules. Aggregators such as 338Canada and The Writ project the PQ winning 67-68 of 127 seats, just above the 64-seat threshold, driven by its dominant position among francophone voters. The Quebec Liberal Party sits second in popular vote but trails far behind in francophone support, limiting its seat gains. With advance voting underway and the October 5 election days away, the race hinges on whether the PQ secures nearly all its competitive ridings before undecided voters finalize their choices. Trader consensus at 55% for a PQ majority reflects this narrow but favorable positioning.