Ensemble forecasts from European weather models place Milan’s daytime maximum near 21–22°C on May 17 under a stable high-pressure ridge, light northerly flow, and moderate May insolation across the Po Valley. This narrow range produces the closely matched market-implied odds for those two outcomes, with traders assigning roughly equal weight to the possibility that afternoon boundary-layer mixing or patchy high cloud will nudge the peak one degree higher or lower. Historical climatology for mid-May shows average highs of 20–23°C, so current conditions sit squarely in the seasonal norm without strong anomalies in temperature advection or moisture. Later model runs today and overnight will clarify any adjustments to cloud timing or wind shifts that could tip the final observed high before resolution tomorrow.