Traders assign a 90% probability to no new country formally joining the Abraham Accords by June 30 because the short remaining timeline intersects with stalled bilateral negotiations and persistent regional obstacles. Saudi Arabia continues to condition any normalization on concrete progress toward Palestinian statehood and a Gaza ceasefire, conditions that have shown no advancement in recent months. Parallel efforts involving Syria and Lebanon remain blocked by ongoing border tensions and Israeli military operations, while earlier announcements such as Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession have already been finalized without producing additional signatories. Diplomatic calendars show no scheduled summits or high-level announcements capable of accelerating a new agreement before the deadline. A late breakthrough in ceasefire talks or a sudden bilateral deal could still shift the outcome, though current evidence points to limited near-term movement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$24,753 Vol.
$24,753 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$24,753 Vol.
$24,753 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 90% probability to no new country formally joining the Abraham Accords by June 30 because the short remaining timeline intersects with stalled bilateral negotiations and persistent regional obstacles. Saudi Arabia continues to condition any normalization on concrete progress toward Palestinian statehood and a Gaza ceasefire, conditions that have shown no advancement in recent months. Parallel efforts involving Syria and Lebanon remain blocked by ongoing border tensions and Israeli military operations, while earlier announcements such as Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession have already been finalized without producing additional signatories. Diplomatic calendars show no scheduled summits or high-level announcements capable of accelerating a new agreement before the deadline. A late breakthrough in ceasefire talks or a sudden bilateral deal could still shift the outcome, though current evidence points to limited near-term movement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$24,753Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 90% probability to no new country formally joining the Abraham Accords by June 30 because the short remaining timeline intersects with stalled bilateral negotiations and persistent regional obstacles. Saudi Arabia continues to condition any normalization on concrete progress toward Palestinian statehood and a Gaza ceasefire, conditions that have shown no advancement in recent months. Parallel efforts involving Syria and Lebanon remain blocked by ongoing border tensions and Israeli military operations, while earlier announcements such as Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession have already been finalized without producing additional signatories. Diplomatic calendars show no scheduled summits or high-level announcements capable of accelerating a new agreement before the deadline. A late breakthrough in ceasefire talks or a sudden bilateral deal could still shift the outcome, though current evidence points to limited near-term movement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$24,753Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 90% probability to no new country formally joining the Abraham Accords by June 30 because the short remaining timeline intersects with stalled bilateral negotiations and persistent regional obstacles. Saudi Arabia continues to condition any normalization on concrete progress toward Palestinian statehood and a Gaza ceasefire, conditions that have shown no advancement in recent months. Parallel efforts involving Syria and Lebanon remain blocked by ongoing border tensions and Israeli military operations, while earlier announcements such as Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession have already been finalized without producing additional signatories. Diplomatic calendars show no scheduled summits or high-level announcements capable of accelerating a new agreement before the deadline. A late breakthrough in ceasefire talks or a sudden bilateral deal could still shift the outcome, though current evidence points to limited near-term movement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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