Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and ensemble models indicate a daytime high in the mid-70s for Chicago on May 16, driven by southerly flow and warm-air advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. This aligns with climatological norms of 70–71°F for mid-May while exceeding the 56°F threshold by a wide margin, producing the market’s near-certain 99.9% consensus on that outcome. Model agreement remains tight through the afternoon, with only minor spread in timing of peak temperatures. A realistic shift would require an unforecasted cold surge or measurement error at official stations, both statistically improbable given the season and current atmospheric setup.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Chicago on May 16?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 16?
56°F or higher 99.8%
48-49°F <1%
54-55°F <1%
37°F or below <1%
NUOVO
$29,560 Vol.
NUOVO
$29,560 Vol.
16 mag 2026
37°F or below
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56°F or higher
100%
56°F or higher 99.8%
48-49°F <1%
54-55°F <1%
37°F or below <1%
NUOVO
$29,560 Vol.
NUOVO
$29,560 Vol.
16 mag 2026
37°F or below
$8,654 Vol.
<1%
38-39°F
$2,071 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$2,402 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$1,326 Vol.
<1%
44-45°F
$1,673 Vol.
<1%
46-47°F
$1,677 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$1,759 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$1,726 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$1,509 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$2,099 Vol.
<1%
56°F or higher
$4,664 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and ensemble models indicate a daytime high in the mid-70s for Chicago on May 16, driven by southerly flow and warm-air advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. This aligns with climatological norms of 70–71°F for mid-May while exceeding the 56°F threshold by a wide margin, producing the market’s near-certain 99.9% consensus on that outcome. Model agreement remains tight through the afternoon, with only minor spread in timing of peak temperatures. A realistic shift would require an unforecasted cold surge or measurement error at official stations, both statistically improbable given the season and current atmospheric setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$29,560Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and ensemble models indicate a daytime high in the mid-70s for Chicago on May 16, driven by southerly flow and warm-air advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. This aligns with climatological norms of 70–71°F for mid-May while exceeding the 56°F threshold by a wide margin, producing the market’s near-certain 99.9% consensus on that outcome. Model agreement remains tight through the afternoon, with only minor spread in timing of peak temperatures. A realistic shift would require an unforecasted cold surge or measurement error at official stations, both statistically improbable given the season and current atmospheric setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$29,560Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and ensemble models indicate a daytime high in the mid-70s for Chicago on May 16, driven by southerly flow and warm-air advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. This aligns with climatological norms of 70–71°F for mid-May while exceeding the 56°F threshold by a wide margin, producing the market’s near-certain 99.9% consensus on that outcome. Model agreement remains tight through the afternoon, with only minor spread in timing of peak temperatures. A realistic shift would require an unforecasted cold surge or measurement error at official stations, both statistically improbable given the season and current atmospheric setup.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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