Incumbent Henry Cuellar maintains a commanding lead in the TX-28 contest due to consistent polling advantages, including a recent internal survey showing him ahead by 20 points among likely voters, alongside strong fundraising and cash reserves that outpace challenger Tano Tijerina. Despite Republican-led redistricting that shifted the seat toward a Trump-favorable partisan lean and national GOP recruitment of the former Democratic Webb County judge as a high-profile opponent, external Republican groups have withdrawn millions in planned advertising, reflecting diminished expectations. Forecasters rate the race as leaning or likely Democratic, aligning with the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Early voting is underway ahead of the November 3 general election. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include sharp shifts in turnout among key voting blocs or late-breaking developments affecting candidate viability.