Recent stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear program explain the 78% implied probability against a U.S.-Iran deal by June 30. President Trump rejected Iran's latest counterproposal on May 11, describing it as unacceptable and leaving the ceasefire in doubt due to insufficient limits on uranium enrichment. Ongoing indirect talks, mediated in Geneva and Islamabad, remain deadlocked on U.S. demands for a 12- to 20-year moratorium and verifiable curbs versus Tehran's preference for shorter restrictions alongside Strait of Hormuz access. New sanctions and separate discussions limited to maritime issues have further narrowed the window for agreement before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$1,863,711 Vol.
$1,863,711 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$1,863,711 Vol.
$1,863,711 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear program explain the 78% implied probability against a U.S.-Iran deal by June 30. President Trump rejected Iran's latest counterproposal on May 11, describing it as unacceptable and leaving the ceasefire in doubt due to insufficient limits on uranium enrichment. Ongoing indirect talks, mediated in Geneva and Islamabad, remain deadlocked on U.S. demands for a 12- to 20-year moratorium and verifiable curbs versus Tehran's preference for shorter restrictions alongside Strait of Hormuz access. New sanctions and separate discussions limited to maritime issues have further narrowed the window for agreement before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$1,863,711終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear program explain the 78% implied probability against a U.S.-Iran deal by June 30. President Trump rejected Iran's latest counterproposal on May 11, describing it as unacceptable and leaving the ceasefire in doubt due to insufficient limits on uranium enrichment. Ongoing indirect talks, mediated in Geneva and Islamabad, remain deadlocked on U.S. demands for a 12- to 20-year moratorium and verifiable curbs versus Tehran's preference for shorter restrictions alongside Strait of Hormuz access. New sanctions and separate discussions limited to maritime issues have further narrowed the window for agreement before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
音量
$1,863,711終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear program explain the 78% implied probability against a U.S.-Iran deal by June 30. President Trump rejected Iran's latest counterproposal on May 11, describing it as unacceptable and leaving the ceasefire in doubt due to insufficient limits on uranium enrichment. Ongoing indirect talks, mediated in Geneva and Islamabad, remain deadlocked on U.S. demands for a 12- to 20-year moratorium and verifiable curbs versus Tehran's preference for shorter restrictions alongside Strait of Hormuz access. New sanctions and separate discussions limited to maritime issues have further narrowed the window for agreement before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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