National Weather Service forecast ensembles and major models like GFS and ECMWF project Chicago's highest temperature on May 16 reaching the mid-60s to low-70s°F, well above the 56°F threshold dominating at 99.9% market-implied probability, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southerly flow and seasonal warming. Climatological normals confirm an average high of 70.6°F for the date at O'Hare International Airport, the likely resolution station, with recent days featuring similar mild conditions absent any cold fronts. This near-unanimous trader consensus underscores model agreement amid low uncertainty two days out. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen jet stream dip ushering Arctic air or intensified Lake Michigan lake breeze moderation dropping temps 10-15°F, though current patterns make these improbable; watch NWS updates Friday for refinements.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Chicago on May 16?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 16?
56°F or higher 99.8%
42-43°F <1%
44-45°F <1%
46-47°F <1%
신규
$10,507 거래량
신규
$10,507 거래량
2026.05.16
37°F or below
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56°F or higher
100%
56°F or higher 99.8%
42-43°F <1%
44-45°F <1%
46-47°F <1%
신규
$10,507 거래량
신규
$10,507 거래량
2026.05.16
37°F or below
$1,341 거래량
<1%
38-39°F
$1,071 거래량
<1%
40-41°F
$1,240 거래량
<1%
42-43°F
$726 거래량
<1%
44-45°F
$973 거래량
<1%
46-47°F
$1,177 거래량
<1%
48-49°F
$926 거래량
<1%
50-51°F
$726 거래량
<1%
52-53°F
$471 거래량
<1%
54-55°F
$863 거래량
<1%
56°F or higher
$994 거래량
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecast ensembles and major models like GFS and ECMWF project Chicago's highest temperature on May 16 reaching the mid-60s to low-70s°F, well above the 56°F threshold dominating at 99.9% market-implied probability, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southerly flow and seasonal warming. Climatological normals confirm an average high of 70.6°F for the date at O'Hare International Airport, the likely resolution station, with recent days featuring similar mild conditions absent any cold fronts. This near-unanimous trader consensus underscores model agreement amid low uncertainty two days out. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen jet stream dip ushering Arctic air or intensified Lake Michigan lake breeze moderation dropping temps 10-15°F, though current patterns make these improbable; watch NWS updates Friday for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
거래량
$10,507종료일
2026.05.16마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecast ensembles and major models like GFS and ECMWF project Chicago's highest temperature on May 16 reaching the mid-60s to low-70s°F, well above the 56°F threshold dominating at 99.9% market-implied probability, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southerly flow and seasonal warming. Climatological normals confirm an average high of 70.6°F for the date at O'Hare International Airport, the likely resolution station, with recent days featuring similar mild conditions absent any cold fronts. This near-unanimous trader consensus underscores model agreement amid low uncertainty two days out. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen jet stream dip ushering Arctic air or intensified Lake Michigan lake breeze moderation dropping temps 10-15°F, though current patterns make these improbable; watch NWS updates Friday for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$10,507종료일
2026.05.16마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETNational Weather Service forecast ensembles and major models like GFS and ECMWF project Chicago's highest temperature on May 16 reaching the mid-60s to low-70s°F, well above the 56°F threshold dominating at 99.9% market-implied probability, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southerly flow and seasonal warming. Climatological normals confirm an average high of 70.6°F for the date at O'Hare International Airport, the likely resolution station, with recent days featuring similar mild conditions absent any cold fronts. This near-unanimous trader consensus underscores model agreement amid low uncertainty two days out. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen jet stream dip ushering Arctic air or intensified Lake Michigan lake breeze moderation dropping temps 10-15°F, though current patterns make these improbable; watch NWS updates Friday for refinements.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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