Traders have converged on 21°C as the near-certain outcome for Qingdao’s highest temperature on May 16 because official observations from China Meteorological Administration stations recorded a daily maximum of exactly that value under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly flow off the Yellow Sea. Marine air masses, with sea-surface temperatures averaging 12–15°C, suppressed afternoon warming and kept the peak aligned with the lower end of mid-May climatology. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS runs showed minimal spread around this reading, reinforcing the 99.8 % market-implied probability. A realistic challenge would require post-analysis revisions to station data or an unanticipated late-day surge, though both remain improbable given the already completed diurnal cycle.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Qingdao on May 16?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 16?
21°C 99.8%
23°C <1%
22°C <1%
25°C <1%
$34,490 Wol.
$34,490 Wol.
May 16, 2026
21°C
100%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
21°C 99.8%
23°C <1%
22°C <1%
25°C <1%
$34,490 Wol.
$34,490 Wol.
May 16, 2026
21°C
$12,733 Wol.
100%
22°C
$3,582 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$2,786 Wol.
1%
24°C
$1,603 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$2,070 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$1,960 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$1,081 Wol.
<1%
28°C
$996 Wol.
<1%
29°C
$1,469 Wol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$1,325 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders have converged on 21°C as the near-certain outcome for Qingdao’s highest temperature on May 16 because official observations from China Meteorological Administration stations recorded a daily maximum of exactly that value under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly flow off the Yellow Sea. Marine air masses, with sea-surface temperatures averaging 12–15°C, suppressed afternoon warming and kept the peak aligned with the lower end of mid-May climatology. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS runs showed minimal spread around this reading, reinforcing the 99.8 % market-implied probability. A realistic challenge would require post-analysis revisions to station data or an unanticipated late-day surge, though both remain improbable given the already completed diurnal cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Wolumen
$34,490Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders have converged on 21°C as the near-certain outcome for Qingdao’s highest temperature on May 16 because official observations from China Meteorological Administration stations recorded a daily maximum of exactly that value under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly flow off the Yellow Sea. Marine air masses, with sea-surface temperatures averaging 12–15°C, suppressed afternoon warming and kept the peak aligned with the lower end of mid-May climatology. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS runs showed minimal spread around this reading, reinforcing the 99.8 % market-implied probability. A realistic challenge would require post-analysis revisions to station data or an unanticipated late-day surge, though both remain improbable given the already completed diurnal cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$34,490Data zakończenia
May 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have converged on 21°C as the near-certain outcome for Qingdao’s highest temperature on May 16 because official observations from China Meteorological Administration stations recorded a daily maximum of exactly that value under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly flow off the Yellow Sea. Marine air masses, with sea-surface temperatures averaging 12–15°C, suppressed afternoon warming and kept the peak aligned with the lower end of mid-May climatology. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS runs showed minimal spread around this reading, reinforcing the 99.8 % market-implied probability. A realistic challenge would require post-analysis revisions to station data or an unanticipated late-day surge, though both remain improbable given the already completed diurnal cycle.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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