Latest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models place Shanghai’s May 17 maximum temperature in a narrow 26–27 °C band, with the market assigning 41.5 % probability to 26 °C and 33.5 % to 27 °C. Mid-May climatological normals at the Xujiahui station average 23–25 °C, but persistent southerly flow and the city’s urban heat-island effect are elevating readings by 2–3 °C. Model spread remains modest, with most members clustered near 26 °C under partly cloudy skies and light winds; any increase in afternoon insolation or reduced boundary-layer mixing could push the peak to 27 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the two leading outcomes most heavily, while lower-probability bins below 25 °C or above 28 °C reflect only slim chances of significant model deviation before resolution on official observations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
26°C 42%
27°C 34%
28°C 14%
25°C 12%
NOWE
$27,418 Wol.
NOWE
$27,418 Wol.
May 17, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
12%
26°C
42%
27°C
34%
28°C
14%
29°C
3%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 42%
27°C 34%
28°C 14%
25°C 12%
NOWE
$27,418 Wol.
NOWE
$27,418 Wol.
May 17, 2026
21°C or below
$1,091 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$4,426 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$4,651 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$3,819 Wol.
1%
25°C
$2,150 Wol.
12%
26°C
$2,318 Wol.
42%
27°C
$2,050 Wol.
34%
28°C
$1,670 Wol.
14%
29°C
$1,829 Wol.
3%
30°C
$1,211 Wol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$2,395 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models place Shanghai’s May 17 maximum temperature in a narrow 26–27 °C band, with the market assigning 41.5 % probability to 26 °C and 33.5 % to 27 °C. Mid-May climatological normals at the Xujiahui station average 23–25 °C, but persistent southerly flow and the city’s urban heat-island effect are elevating readings by 2–3 °C. Model spread remains modest, with most members clustered near 26 °C under partly cloudy skies and light winds; any increase in afternoon insolation or reduced boundary-layer mixing could push the peak to 27 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the two leading outcomes most heavily, while lower-probability bins below 25 °C or above 28 °C reflect only slim chances of significant model deviation before resolution on official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$27,418Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models place Shanghai’s May 17 maximum temperature in a narrow 26–27 °C band, with the market assigning 41.5 % probability to 26 °C and 33.5 % to 27 °C. Mid-May climatological normals at the Xujiahui station average 23–25 °C, but persistent southerly flow and the city’s urban heat-island effect are elevating readings by 2–3 °C. Model spread remains modest, with most members clustered near 26 °C under partly cloudy skies and light winds; any increase in afternoon insolation or reduced boundary-layer mixing could push the peak to 27 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the two leading outcomes most heavily, while lower-probability bins below 25 °C or above 28 °C reflect only slim chances of significant model deviation before resolution on official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$27,418Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDLatest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models place Shanghai’s May 17 maximum temperature in a narrow 26–27 °C band, with the market assigning 41.5 % probability to 26 °C and 33.5 % to 27 °C. Mid-May climatological normals at the Xujiahui station average 23–25 °C, but persistent southerly flow and the city’s urban heat-island effect are elevating readings by 2–3 °C. Model spread remains modest, with most members clustered near 26 °C under partly cloudy skies and light winds; any increase in afternoon insolation or reduced boundary-layer mixing could push the peak to 27 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the two leading outcomes most heavily, while lower-probability bins below 25 °C or above 28 °C reflect only slim chances of significant model deviation before resolution on official observations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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