Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models show Shanghai’s May 17 maximum temperature tightly clustered between 26°C and 27°C, driving the market’s near-even split at 42.5% and 37.5% implied probability. Stable atmospheric steering patterns, limited moisture advection, and modest cloud cover have narrowed model spread, with the slight preference for 26°C reflecting greater agreement across higher-resolution runs. Historical mid-May climatology near 25–26°C at the Xujiahui station provides context, while urban heat-island amplification and official China Meteorological Administration thresholds add precision to the resolution criteria. Updated model guidance expected within the next 12 hours could further refine these probabilities ahead of the official daily high measurement.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
26°C 43%
27°C 36%
28°C 11%
25°C 8%
NOWE
$30,202 Wol.
NOWE
$30,202 Wol.
May 17, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
8%
26°C
43%
27°C
36%
28°C
11%
29°C
3%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 43%
27°C 36%
28°C 11%
25°C 8%
NOWE
$30,202 Wol.
NOWE
$30,202 Wol.
May 17, 2026
21°C or below
$1,091 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$4,426 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$4,799 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$3,991 Wol.
1%
25°C
$3,108 Wol.
8%
26°C
$2,346 Wol.
43%
27°C
$2,099 Wol.
36%
28°C
$2,062 Wol.
11%
29°C
$2,675 Wol.
3%
30°C
$1,211 Wol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$2,395 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models show Shanghai’s May 17 maximum temperature tightly clustered between 26°C and 27°C, driving the market’s near-even split at 42.5% and 37.5% implied probability. Stable atmospheric steering patterns, limited moisture advection, and modest cloud cover have narrowed model spread, with the slight preference for 26°C reflecting greater agreement across higher-resolution runs. Historical mid-May climatology near 25–26°C at the Xujiahui station provides context, while urban heat-island amplification and official China Meteorological Administration thresholds add precision to the resolution criteria. Updated model guidance expected within the next 12 hours could further refine these probabilities ahead of the official daily high measurement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$30,202Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models show Shanghai’s May 17 maximum temperature tightly clustered between 26°C and 27°C, driving the market’s near-even split at 42.5% and 37.5% implied probability. Stable atmospheric steering patterns, limited moisture advection, and modest cloud cover have narrowed model spread, with the slight preference for 26°C reflecting greater agreement across higher-resolution runs. Historical mid-May climatology near 25–26°C at the Xujiahui station provides context, while urban heat-island amplification and official China Meteorological Administration thresholds add precision to the resolution criteria. Updated model guidance expected within the next 12 hours could further refine these probabilities ahead of the official daily high measurement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$30,202Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDRecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models show Shanghai’s May 17 maximum temperature tightly clustered between 26°C and 27°C, driving the market’s near-even split at 42.5% and 37.5% implied probability. Stable atmospheric steering patterns, limited moisture advection, and modest cloud cover have narrowed model spread, with the slight preference for 26°C reflecting greater agreement across higher-resolution runs. Historical mid-May climatology near 25–26°C at the Xujiahui station provides context, while urban heat-island amplification and official China Meteorological Administration thresholds add precision to the resolution criteria. Updated model guidance expected within the next 12 hours could further refine these probabilities ahead of the official daily high measurement.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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