Current ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers point to a strong likelihood of Warsaw’s maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 19 °C on May 18, driven by a southerly airflow advecting warmer air masses across central Poland under mostly clear skies. Model consensus shows daytime highs centered near 19–21 °C, consistent with the rapid seasonal climb typical for mid-May when solar insolation strengthens and daytime heating peaks. While a few runs suggest a brief marine-air intrusion could cap readings near 18 °C, the probability-weighted guidance favors the upper end of the range. Traders are therefore pricing the 19 °C threshold at 68 percent as the dominant outcome ahead of the final 48-hour model updates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 18?
19°C or higher 69%
18°C 16%
17°C 7%
16°C 2.5%
NOWE
NOWE
May 18, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
3%
17°C
7%
18°C
16%
19°C or higher
69%
19°C or higher 69%
18°C 16%
17°C 7%
16°C 2.5%
NOWE
NOWE
May 18, 2026
9°C or below
$210 Wol.
<1%
10°C
$230 Wol.
<1%
11°C
$210 Wol.
1%
12°C
$210 Wol.
1%
13°C
$70 Wol.
1%
14°C
$25 Wol.
1%
15°C
$75 Wol.
2%
16°C
$32 Wol.
3%
17°C
$1 Wol.
7%
18°C
$1 Wol.
16%
19°C or higher
$97 Wol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers point to a strong likelihood of Warsaw’s maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 19 °C on May 18, driven by a southerly airflow advecting warmer air masses across central Poland under mostly clear skies. Model consensus shows daytime highs centered near 19–21 °C, consistent with the rapid seasonal climb typical for mid-May when solar insolation strengthens and daytime heating peaks. While a few runs suggest a brief marine-air intrusion could cap readings near 18 °C, the probability-weighted guidance favors the upper end of the range. Traders are therefore pricing the 19 °C threshold at 68 percent as the dominant outcome ahead of the final 48-hour model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,161Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers point to a strong likelihood of Warsaw’s maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 19 °C on May 18, driven by a southerly airflow advecting warmer air masses across central Poland under mostly clear skies. Model consensus shows daytime highs centered near 19–21 °C, consistent with the rapid seasonal climb typical for mid-May when solar insolation strengthens and daytime heating peaks. While a few runs suggest a brief marine-air intrusion could cap readings near 18 °C, the probability-weighted guidance favors the upper end of the range. Traders are therefore pricing the 19 °C threshold at 68 percent as the dominant outcome ahead of the final 48-hour model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$1,161Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWACurrent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers point to a strong likelihood of Warsaw’s maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 19 °C on May 18, driven by a southerly airflow advecting warmer air masses across central Poland under mostly clear skies. Model consensus shows daytime highs centered near 19–21 °C, consistent with the rapid seasonal climb typical for mid-May when solar insolation strengthens and daytime heating peaks. While a few runs suggest a brief marine-air intrusion could cap readings near 18 °C, the probability-weighted guidance favors the upper end of the range. Traders are therefore pricing the 19 °C threshold at 68 percent as the dominant outcome ahead of the final 48-hour model updates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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