Recent Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble forecasts indicate an overnight low near 10°C at the Paris-Le Bourget reference station today, driven by a moderating northerly flow under building high pressure that supports moderate radiative cooling beneath partly cloudy skies. This consensus aligns closely with historical May climatology for the region, where nocturnal minima typically range 8–12°C amid transitional spring patterns. Trader consensus has coalesced around the 10°C outcome at 97.5% implied probability because current model guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering within 1–2°C of that threshold. A notable departure could still occur if unexpected clear skies enhance cooling or if localized urban heat effects at measurement sites push readings higher, though official verification relies on standardized observations rather than forecasts.