Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on May 15, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting a daytime maximum around 25°C amid light rain and mostly cloudy skies, with morning lows near 18°C. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin, where average highs hit 27°C and topographic warmth trapping sustains peaks even under overcast conditions—evidenced by May 14's observed 25°C high in similar weather. Model ensembles from CMA and international sources show tight agreement on limited cooling. Realistic challenges include prolonged heavy precipitation or sudden cool air advection suppressing afternoon heating to 22°C, though upper-level ridge stability makes this unlikely. Hourly observations from Shuangliu Airport station will finalize resolution via official records.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Chengdu no dia 15 de maio?
Temperatura mais alta em Chengdu no dia 15 de maio?
23°C ou mais 100.0%
13°C ou menos <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$39,695 Vol.
$39,695 Vol.
13°C ou menos
Não
14°C
Não
15°C
Não
16°C
Não
17°C
Não
18°C
Não
19°C
Não
20°C
Não
21°C
Não
22°C
Não
23°C ou mais
Sim
23°C ou mais 100.0%
13°C ou menos <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$39,695 Vol.
$39,695 Vol.
13°C ou menos
Não
14°C
Não
15°C
Não
16°C
Não
17°C
Não
18°C
Não
19°C
Não
20°C
Não
21°C
Não
22°C
Não
23°C ou mais
Sim
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on May 15, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting a daytime maximum around 25°C amid light rain and mostly cloudy skies, with morning lows near 18°C. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin, where average highs hit 27°C and topographic warmth trapping sustains peaks even under overcast conditions—evidenced by May 14's observed 25°C high in similar weather. Model ensembles from CMA and international sources show tight agreement on limited cooling. Realistic challenges include prolonged heavy precipitation or sudden cool air advection suppressing afternoon heating to 22°C, though upper-level ridge stability makes this unlikely. Hourly observations from Shuangliu Airport station will finalize resolution via official records.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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