Recent US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in early May have heightened regional tensions, driving trader expectations for a potential full Iranian airspace closure by month's end amid ongoing ceasefire fragility. Partial reopenings of eastern Tehran flight information region corridors since late April have allowed limited overflights, yet repeated drone and missile activity, naval standoffs in the Strait of Hormuz, and stalled diplomatic talks continue to signal vulnerability to sudden restrictions. Historical precedent of multi-hour shutdowns during prior escalations supports the current implied probability near 38 percent, with any further strikes or IRGC responses likely to tip the balance toward broader closure before the May 31 resolution window closes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
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