Iván Cepeda, the Historic Pact senator and candidate backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, secured 40.9 percent of the vote in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election, placing second behind right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella’s 43.7 percent. Pre-election polling averages had positioned Cepeda as the frontrunner, yet late momentum for de la Espriella—driven by hardline security messaging, evangelical church support, and social media outreach—split conservative and centrist votes while eroding Cepeda’s expected margin. Official certification on June 4 confirmed neither candidate reached the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff, locking Cepeda’s first-round share firmly in the 40–45 percent range amid a peaceful vote despite prior campaign violence. Upcoming June 21 runoff dynamics, including potential endorsements from eliminated centrists and turnout among Petro’s core rural and progressive base, remain the primary variables that could still influence final positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?
Iván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?
40-45% 98.8%
50-55% 2.9%
45-50% 1.7%
35-40% 1.1%
$31,803 Vol.
$31,803 Vol.
31 mai 2026
<30%
1%
30-35%
1%
35-40%
1%
40-45%
99%
45-50%
2%
50-55%
3%
55%+
<1%
40-45% 98.8%
50-55% 2.9%
45-50% 1.7%
35-40% 1.1%
$31,803 Vol.
$31,803 Vol.
31 mai 2026
<30%
$5,437 Vol.
1%
30-35%
$2,208 Vol.
1%
35-40%
$3,804 Vol.
1%
40-45%
$9,241 Vol.
99%
45-50%
$3,491 Vol.
2%
50-55%
$3,190 Vol.
3%
55%+
$4,432 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Iván Cepeda, the Historic Pact senator and candidate backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, secured 40.9 percent of the vote in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election, placing second behind right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella’s 43.7 percent. Pre-election polling averages had positioned Cepeda as the frontrunner, yet late momentum for de la Espriella—driven by hardline security messaging, evangelical church support, and social media outreach—split conservative and centrist votes while eroding Cepeda’s expected margin. Official certification on June 4 confirmed neither candidate reached the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff, locking Cepeda’s first-round share firmly in the 40–45 percent range amid a peaceful vote despite prior campaign violence. Upcoming June 21 runoff dynamics, including potential endorsements from eliminated centrists and turnout among Petro’s core rural and progressive base, remain the primary variables that could still influence final positioning.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: May 27, 2026, 10:17 PM ET
Volume
$31,803Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 27, 2026, 10:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Iván Cepeda, the Historic Pact senator and candidate backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, secured 40.9 percent of the vote in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election, placing second behind right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella’s 43.7 percent. Pre-election polling averages had positioned Cepeda as the frontrunner, yet late momentum for de la Espriella—driven by hardline security messaging, evangelical church support, and social media outreach—split conservative and centrist votes while eroding Cepeda’s expected margin. Official certification on June 4 confirmed neither candidate reached the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff, locking Cepeda’s first-round share firmly in the 40–45 percent range amid a peaceful vote despite prior campaign violence. Upcoming June 21 runoff dynamics, including potential endorsements from eliminated centrists and turnout among Petro’s core rural and progressive base, remain the primary variables that could still influence final positioning.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$31,803Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 27, 2026, 10:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iván Cepeda, the Historic Pact senator and candidate backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, secured 40.9 percent of the vote in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election, placing second behind right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella’s 43.7 percent. Pre-election polling averages had positioned Cepeda as the frontrunner, yet late momentum for de la Espriella—driven by hardline security messaging, evangelical church support, and social media outreach—split conservative and centrist votes while eroding Cepeda’s expected margin. Official certification on June 4 confirmed neither candidate reached the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff, locking Cepeda’s first-round share firmly in the 40–45 percent range amid a peaceful vote despite prior campaign violence. Upcoming June 21 runoff dynamics, including potential endorsements from eliminated centrists and turnout among Petro’s core rural and progressive base, remain the primary variables that could still influence final positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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