Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on May 15, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting a daytime maximum around 25°C amid light rain and mostly cloudy skies, with morning lows near 18°C. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin, where average highs hit 27°C and topographic warmth trapping sustains peaks even under overcast conditions—evidenced by May 14's observed 25°C high in similar weather. Model ensembles from CMA and international sources show tight agreement on limited cooling. Realistic challenges include prolonged heavy precipitation or sudden cool air advection suppressing afternoon heating to 22°C, though upper-level ridge stability makes this unlikely. Hourly observations from Shuangliu Airport station will finalize resolution via official records.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Чэнду 15 мая?
Самая высокая температура в Чэнду 15 мая?
23°C или выше 100.0%
13°C или ниже <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$39,695 Объем
$39,695 Объем
13°C или ниже
Нет
14°C
Нет
15°C
Нет
16°C
Нет
17°C
Нет
18°C
Нет
19°C
Нет
20°C
Нет
21°C
Нет
22°C
Нет
23°C или выше
Да
23°C или выше 100.0%
13°C или ниже <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$39,695 Объем
$39,695 Объем
13°C или ниже
Нет
14°C
Нет
15°C
Нет
16°C
Нет
17°C
Нет
18°C
Нет
19°C
Нет
20°C
Нет
21°C
Нет
22°C
Нет
23°C или выше
Да
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 23°C or higher on May 15, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting a daytime maximum around 25°C amid light rain and mostly cloudy skies, with morning lows near 18°C. This aligns with mid-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin, where average highs hit 27°C and topographic warmth trapping sustains peaks even under overcast conditions—evidenced by May 14's observed 25°C high in similar weather. Model ensembles from CMA and international sources show tight agreement on limited cooling. Realistic challenges include prolonged heavy precipitation or sudden cool air advection suppressing afternoon heating to 22°C, though upper-level ridge stability makes this unlikely. Hourly observations from Shuangliu Airport station will finalize resolution via official records.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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