The latest India Meteorological Department short-range forecast, issued May 16, anchors the 69.5% market-implied probability for a Lucknow maximum of 41 °C or below on May 17 by projecting a peak near 41–42 °C under mainly clear skies with light winds. Pre-monsoon heating across the Indo-Gangetic Plain remains the seasonal baseline, yet above-normal May rainfall and lingering moisture from recent western-disturbance activity have limited daytime radiative warming and kept surface temperatures near climatological norms of 39–42 °C. Model consensus shows minimal intensification potential, with no strong heat-wave setup expected before the next observational cycle resolves the contract. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow window around the official forecast threshold rather than historical extremes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Лакхнау 17 мая?
41°C or below 70%
42°C 20%
43°C 7.5%
44°C 1.9%
$16,165 Объем
$16,165 Объем
41°C or below
70%
42°C
20%
43°C
8%
44°C
2%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
41°C or below 70%
42°C 20%
43°C 7.5%
44°C 1.9%
$16,165 Объем
$16,165 Объем
41°C or below
70%
42°C
20%
43°C
8%
44°C
2%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKThe latest India Meteorological Department short-range forecast, issued May 16, anchors the 69.5% market-implied probability for a Lucknow maximum of 41 °C or below on May 17 by projecting a peak near 41–42 °C under mainly clear skies with light winds. Pre-monsoon heating across the Indo-Gangetic Plain remains the seasonal baseline, yet above-normal May rainfall and lingering moisture from recent western-disturbance activity have limited daytime radiative warming and kept surface temperatures near climatological norms of 39–42 °C. Model consensus shows minimal intensification potential, with no strong heat-wave setup expected before the next observational cycle resolves the contract. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow window around the official forecast threshold rather than historical extremes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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