Recent India Meteorological Department forecasts project a maximum of 43°C in Lucknow on May 17 under clear skies, yet market-implied odds assign 85.5% probability to 41°C or below. This positioning stems from recent below-normal daytime readings of 36–41°C amid pre-monsoon conditions in the Indo-Gangetic plain, where climatological averages for mid-May range 39–42°C. Traders appear to weigh potential moderating effects from local moisture or weak western disturbances against typical heat-wave thresholds of 40°C or higher. Official model consensus shows limited intensification risk, with resolution tied to the verified 24-hour maximum observation. Updated IMD guidance and satellite-derived temperature trends over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could shift sentiment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Лакхнау 17 мая?
41°C or below 83%
42°C 12%
43°C 4.0%
44°C 1.4%
41°C or below
83%
42°C
12%
43°C
4%
44°C
1%
45°C
1%
46°C
1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
41°C or below 83%
42°C 12%
43°C 4.0%
44°C 1.4%
41°C or below
83%
42°C
12%
43°C
4%
44°C
1%
45°C
1%
46°C
1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKRecent India Meteorological Department forecasts project a maximum of 43°C in Lucknow on May 17 under clear skies, yet market-implied odds assign 85.5% probability to 41°C or below. This positioning stems from recent below-normal daytime readings of 36–41°C amid pre-monsoon conditions in the Indo-Gangetic plain, where climatological averages for mid-May range 39–42°C. Traders appear to weigh potential moderating effects from local moisture or weak western disturbances against typical heat-wave thresholds of 40°C or higher. Official model consensus shows limited intensification risk, with resolution tied to the verified 24-hour maximum observation. Updated IMD guidance and satellite-derived temperature trends over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could shift sentiment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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