Latest forecast models from European agencies, including ECMWF and AEMET, converge on a daytime maximum of 20°C at Madrid-Barajas Airport, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge promoting light northerly flow that advects cooler maritime air across the Iberian Peninsula. Lingering spring cloud cover reduces solar insolation and slows boundary-layer warming, while residual soil moisture from recent showers enhances evaporative cooling, holding readings below the mid-May climatological average near 22°C. With the market assigning near-certain implied probability to the 20°C outcome, traders reflect this model consensus backed by real capital at risk. A late-day shift in wind patterns, unexpected clearing that boosts insolation, or final station observations differing from ensemble means could still push the recorded high into the 21°C range before resolution.