Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.