Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads trader assessments for Quebec’s next premier because the Parti Québécois has held a narrow but consistent edge in recent polling among francophone voters ahead of the October 5 election. The PQ’s support, concentrated in key ridings outside Montreal, aligns with first-past-the-post dynamics that favor it in seat projections despite popular-vote margins often below five points. Christine Fréchette, the CAQ leader and current premier since April 2026, has narrowed the gap in late-summer surveys as the campaign focuses on U.S. tariffs and economic management, yet her party remains behind after years of declining support under the prior administration. Charles Milliard and smaller-party options trail with minimal implied probability.