Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to Austin reaching 82°F or higher today, driven by the National Weather Service forecast of mostly sunny skies and highs near 92°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS), the market's resolution station. This positioning stems from consistent model runs across GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing a persistent upper-level ridge promoting adiabatic heating and minimal cloud interference, amid Central Texas' ongoing warming trend with above-normal spring temperatures. Recent observations confirm morning lows around 68°F, supporting peak afternoon heating. Realistic challenges include an unexpected influx of Gulf moisture sparking isolated thunderstorms or unforecasted haze reducing insolation, though such disruptions remain low-probability per current guidance, with hourly updates expected through evening.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Austin on May 14?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 14?
82°F or higher 99.6%
80-81°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
68-69°F <1%
$89,802 ปริมาณ
$89,802 ปริมาณ
May 14, 2026
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
100%
82°F or higher 99.6%
80-81°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
68-69°F <1%
$89,802 ปริมาณ
$89,802 ปริมาณ
May 14, 2026
68-69°F
$5,391 ปริมาณ
<1%
70-71°F
$6,164 ปริมาณ
<1%
72-73°F
$5,631 ปริมาณ
<1%
74-75°F
$5,532 ปริมาณ
<1%
76-77°F
$6,860 ปริมาณ
<1%
78-79°F
$5,842 ปริมาณ
<1%
80-81°F
$9,395 ปริมาณ
1%
82°F or higher
$25,507 ปริมาณ
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to Austin reaching 82°F or higher today, driven by the National Weather Service forecast of mostly sunny skies and highs near 92°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS), the market's resolution station. This positioning stems from consistent model runs across GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing a persistent upper-level ridge promoting adiabatic heating and minimal cloud interference, amid Central Texas' ongoing warming trend with above-normal spring temperatures. Recent observations confirm morning lows around 68°F, supporting peak afternoon heating. Realistic challenges include an unexpected influx of Gulf moisture sparking isolated thunderstorms or unforecasted haze reducing insolation, though such disruptions remain low-probability per current guidance, with hourly updates expected through evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$89,802วันสิ้นสุด
May 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to Austin reaching 82°F or higher today, driven by the National Weather Service forecast of mostly sunny skies and highs near 92°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS), the market's resolution station. This positioning stems from consistent model runs across GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing a persistent upper-level ridge promoting adiabatic heating and minimal cloud interference, amid Central Texas' ongoing warming trend with above-normal spring temperatures. Recent observations confirm morning lows around 68°F, supporting peak afternoon heating. Realistic challenges include an unexpected influx of Gulf moisture sparking isolated thunderstorms or unforecasted haze reducing insolation, though such disruptions remain low-probability per current guidance, with hourly updates expected through evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$89,802วันสิ้นสุด
May 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to Austin reaching 82°F or higher today, driven by the National Weather Service forecast of mostly sunny skies and highs near 92°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS), the market's resolution station. This positioning stems from consistent model runs across GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing a persistent upper-level ridge promoting adiabatic heating and minimal cloud interference, amid Central Texas' ongoing warming trend with above-normal spring temperatures. Recent observations confirm morning lows around 68°F, supporting peak afternoon heating. Realistic challenges include an unexpected influx of Gulf moisture sparking isolated thunderstorms or unforecasted haze reducing insolation, though such disruptions remain low-probability per current guidance, with hourly updates expected through evening.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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