Ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, including recent attacks on energy infrastructure, continue to shape trader assessments of potential Israeli airspace closures through late May. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 and subsequent retaliatory missile activity, Israel imposed a full civilian closure that was partially lifted in March with capacity limits at Ben Gurion Airport. European aviation authorities extended risk warnings for the Tel Aviv FIR until May 27, reflecting persistent security concerns. Diplomatic signals around ceasefires and gradual carrier resumptions have tempered expectations for an immediate major shutdown, while monitoring of missile threats and official security assessments remains central to probability shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$890,674 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
31%
June 30
47%
$890,674 ปริมาณ
May 31
$386,336 ปริมาณ
31%
June 30
$9,091 ปริมาณ
47%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, including recent attacks on energy infrastructure, continue to shape trader assessments of potential Israeli airspace closures through late May. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 and subsequent retaliatory missile activity, Israel imposed a full civilian closure that was partially lifted in March with capacity limits at Ben Gurion Airport. European aviation authorities extended risk warnings for the Tel Aviv FIR until May 27, reflecting persistent security concerns. Diplomatic signals around ceasefires and gradual carrier resumptions have tempered expectations for an immediate major shutdown, while monitoring of missile threats and official security assessments remains central to probability shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$890,674วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, including recent attacks on energy infrastructure, continue to shape trader assessments of potential Israeli airspace closures through late May. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 and subsequent retaliatory missile activity, Israel imposed a full civilian closure that was partially lifted in March with capacity limits at Ben Gurion Airport. European aviation authorities extended risk warnings for the Tel Aviv FIR until May 27, reflecting persistent security concerns. Diplomatic signals around ceasefires and gradual carrier resumptions have tempered expectations for an immediate major shutdown, while monitoring of missile threats and official security assessments remains central to probability shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$890,674วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, including recent attacks on energy infrastructure, continue to shape trader assessments of potential Israeli airspace closures through late May. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 and subsequent retaliatory missile activity, Israel imposed a full civilian closure that was partially lifted in March with capacity limits at Ben Gurion Airport. European aviation authorities extended risk warnings for the Tel Aviv FIR until May 27, reflecting persistent security concerns. Diplomatic signals around ceasefires and gradual carrier resumptions have tempered expectations for an immediate major shutdown, while monitoring of missile threats and official security assessments remains central to probability shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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