European leaders have anchored their response to the 2026 Iran conflict on defensive posture and diplomacy since the US-Israel strikes in late February and Iran's subsequent missile and drone attacks on regional targets. Joint statements from France, Germany, and the UK have condemned Tehran's actions while explicitly limiting any involvement to protecting allies, shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz, and European interests through proportionate measures like naval deployments. Recent Iranian strikes on the UAE and Oman in early May, coupled with threats against European bases, have reinforced this approach without prompting offensive commitments. Trader consensus at 95.9% for no strike by June 30 reflects these structural constraints and the absence of any shift toward direct military engagement. A major Iranian attack on European assets remains the primary scenario that could alter this positioning before the deadline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วฝรั่งเศสสหราชอาณาจักรหรือเยอรมนีจะโจมตีอิหร่านภายในวันที่ 30 มิถุนายนหรือไม่?
ฝรั่งเศสสหราชอาณาจักรหรือเยอรมนีจะโจมตีอิหร่านภายในวันที่ 30 มิถุนายนหรือไม่?
ใช่
$1,374,512 ปริมาณ
$1,374,512 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
ใช่
$1,374,512 ปริมาณ
$1,374,512 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.European leaders have anchored their response to the 2026 Iran conflict on defensive posture and diplomacy since the US-Israel strikes in late February and Iran's subsequent missile and drone attacks on regional targets. Joint statements from France, Germany, and the UK have condemned Tehran's actions while explicitly limiting any involvement to protecting allies, shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz, and European interests through proportionate measures like naval deployments. Recent Iranian strikes on the UAE and Oman in early May, coupled with threats against European bases, have reinforced this approach without prompting offensive commitments. Trader consensus at 95.9% for no strike by June 30 reflects these structural constraints and the absence of any shift toward direct military engagement. A major Iranian attack on European assets remains the primary scenario that could alter this positioning before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,374,512วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.European leaders have anchored their response to the 2026 Iran conflict on defensive posture and diplomacy since the US-Israel strikes in late February and Iran's subsequent missile and drone attacks on regional targets. Joint statements from France, Germany, and the UK have condemned Tehran's actions while explicitly limiting any involvement to protecting allies, shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz, and European interests through proportionate measures like naval deployments. Recent Iranian strikes on the UAE and Oman in early May, coupled with threats against European bases, have reinforced this approach without prompting offensive commitments. Trader consensus at 95.9% for no strike by June 30 reflects these structural constraints and the absence of any shift toward direct military engagement. A major Iranian attack on European assets remains the primary scenario that could alter this positioning before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,374,512วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...European leaders have anchored their response to the 2026 Iran conflict on defensive posture and diplomacy since the US-Israel strikes in late February and Iran's subsequent missile and drone attacks on regional targets. Joint statements from France, Germany, and the UK have condemned Tehran's actions while explicitly limiting any involvement to protecting allies, shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz, and European interests through proportionate measures like naval deployments. Recent Iranian strikes on the UAE and Oman in early May, coupled with threats against European bases, have reinforced this approach without prompting offensive commitments. Trader consensus at 95.9% for no strike by June 30 reflects these structural constraints and the absence of any shift toward direct military engagement. A major Iranian attack on European assets remains the primary scenario that could alter this positioning before the deadline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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