Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford advanced unopposed through the March 3, 2026, primary in Arkansas's 1st Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+23 where Donald Trump won 72% in 2024. Crawford's history of dominant victories, including 73% in the 2024 general election, combined with Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green's uncontested nomination and no competitive polling, drives trader consensus to 92.5% for a Republican win on November 3. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics. Realistic challenges include a late-breaking scandal, Crawford's health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave, though structural advantages make these unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAR-01 House Election Winner
AR-01 House Election Winner
$18,687 Обс.
$18,687 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
6%
$18,687 Обс.
$18,687 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$11,115 Обс.
93%
Democratic Party
$7,571 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford advanced unopposed through the March 3, 2026, primary in Arkansas's 1st Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+23 where Donald Trump won 72% in 2024. Crawford's history of dominant victories, including 73% in the 2024 general election, combined with Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green's uncontested nomination and no competitive polling, drives trader consensus to 92.5% for a Republican win on November 3. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics. Realistic challenges include a late-breaking scandal, Crawford's health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave, though structural advantages make these unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$18,687Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford advanced unopposed through the March 3, 2026, primary in Arkansas's 1st Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+23 where Donald Trump won 72% in 2024. Crawford's history of dominant victories, including 73% in the 2024 general election, combined with Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green's uncontested nomination and no competitive polling, drives trader consensus to 92.5% for a Republican win on November 3. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics. Realistic challenges include a late-breaking scandal, Crawford's health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave, though structural advantages make these unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$18,687Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford advanced unopposed through the March 3, 2026, primary in Arkansas's 1st Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+23 where Donald Trump won 72% in 2024. Crawford's history of dominant victories, including 73% in the 2024 general election, combined with Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green's uncontested nomination and no competitive polling, drives trader consensus to 92.5% for a Republican win on November 3. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift dynamics. Realistic challenges include a late-breaking scandal, Crawford's health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave, though structural advantages make these unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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