Recent generic ballot polls, including Economist/YouGov (May 9-11, +5 Democrats) and AtlasIntel (May 12, +14.5 Democrats), reflect trader wariness of a blue tsunami—defined as Democrats securing 235+ House seats and a 51+ Senate majority post-2026 midterms—despite President Trump's sub-40% approval and 53% public disapproval of U.S. Iran military action after Tehran's rejected ceasefire proposal on May 11. The RCP average (+6.6 Democrats) signals opposition gains akin to historical midterm averages (26 House seat losses for the president's party), yet GOP advantages in fundraising ($600M edge), redistricting, and the Senate map sustain 52% odds on No, creating tight balance. Iran escalation, gas prices above $4.30/gallon, or recession fears could propel Yes; diplomatic progress or economic relief might cement No.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$27,038 Обс.
$27,038 Обс.
Nov 30, 2026
$27,038 Обс.
$27,038 Обс.
Nov 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfRecent generic ballot polls, including Economist/YouGov (May 9-11, +5 Democrats) and AtlasIntel (May 12, +14.5 Democrats), reflect trader wariness of a blue tsunami—defined as Democrats securing 235+ House seats and a 51+ Senate majority post-2026 midterms—despite President Trump's sub-40% approval and 53% public disapproval of U.S. Iran military action after Tehran's rejected ceasefire proposal on May 11. The RCP average (+6.6 Democrats) signals opposition gains akin to historical midterm averages (26 House seat losses for the president's party), yet GOP advantages in fundraising ($600M edge), redistricting, and the Senate map sustain 52% odds on No, creating tight balance. Iran escalation, gas prices above $4.30/gallon, or recession fears could propel Yes; diplomatic progress or economic relief might cement No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Обсяг
$27,038Дата завершення
Nov 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfRecent generic ballot polls, including Economist/YouGov (May 9-11, +5 Democrats) and AtlasIntel (May 12, +14.5 Democrats), reflect trader wariness of a blue tsunami—defined as Democrats securing 235+ House seats and a 51+ Senate majority post-2026 midterms—despite President Trump's sub-40% approval and 53% public disapproval of U.S. Iran military action after Tehran's rejected ceasefire proposal on May 11. The RCP average (+6.6 Democrats) signals opposition gains akin to historical midterm averages (26 House seat losses for the president's party), yet GOP advantages in fundraising ($600M edge), redistricting, and the Senate map sustain 52% odds on No, creating tight balance. Iran escalation, gas prices above $4.30/gallon, or recession fears could propel Yes; diplomatic progress or economic relief might cement No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
Обсяг
$27,038Дата завершення
Nov 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent generic ballot polls, including Economist/YouGov (May 9-11, +5 Democrats) and AtlasIntel (May 12, +14.5 Democrats), reflect trader wariness of a blue tsunami—defined as Democrats securing 235+ House seats and a 51+ Senate majority post-2026 midterms—despite President Trump's sub-40% approval and 53% public disapproval of U.S. Iran military action after Tehran's rejected ceasefire proposal on May 11. The RCP average (+6.6 Democrats) signals opposition gains akin to historical midterm averages (26 House seat losses for the president's party), yet GOP advantages in fundraising ($600M edge), redistricting, and the Senate map sustain 52% odds on No, creating tight balance. Iran escalation, gas prices above $4.30/gallon, or recession fears could propel Yes; diplomatic progress or economic relief might cement No.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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