Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 68% implied probability to a high of 28°C or higher in Guangzhou on May 16, driven by the latest forecast model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing peak temperatures near 28°C amid persistent subtropical warmth from a weakening high-pressure ridge over southern China. Recent observations confirm the trend, with May 14 highs reaching around 32°C and May 15 forecasts near 30°C, but incoming easterly winds carrying moist air increase thunderstorm risk, potentially capping intensity as reflected in 18% odds for exactly 27°C per BBC and AccuWeather guidance (highs 26-27°C). High humidity above 80% and urban heat effects at Baiyun International Airport could push observed maxima higher; watch China Meteorological Administration updates overnight for refinements ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Guangzhou on May 16?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 16?
28°C or higher 45%
27°C 27%
26°C 15%
25°C 13.1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 16, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
13%
26°C
15%
27°C
27%
28°C or higher
45%
28°C or higher 45%
27°C 27%
26°C 15%
25°C 13.1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 16, 2026
18°C or below
$470 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$424 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$428 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$977 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$683 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$815 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$697 Обс.
2%
25°C
$1,291 Обс.
13%
26°C
$499 Обс.
15%
27°C
$529 Обс.
27%
28°C or higher
$1,122 Обс.
45%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 68% implied probability to a high of 28°C or higher in Guangzhou on May 16, driven by the latest forecast model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing peak temperatures near 28°C amid persistent subtropical warmth from a weakening high-pressure ridge over southern China. Recent observations confirm the trend, with May 14 highs reaching around 32°C and May 15 forecasts near 30°C, but incoming easterly winds carrying moist air increase thunderstorm risk, potentially capping intensity as reflected in 18% odds for exactly 27°C per BBC and AccuWeather guidance (highs 26-27°C). High humidity above 80% and urban heat effects at Baiyun International Airport could push observed maxima higher; watch China Meteorological Administration updates overnight for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Обсяг
$7,936Дата завершення
May 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 68% implied probability to a high of 28°C or higher in Guangzhou on May 16, driven by the latest forecast model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing peak temperatures near 28°C amid persistent subtropical warmth from a weakening high-pressure ridge over southern China. Recent observations confirm the trend, with May 14 highs reaching around 32°C and May 15 forecasts near 30°C, but incoming easterly winds carrying moist air increase thunderstorm risk, potentially capping intensity as reflected in 18% odds for exactly 27°C per BBC and AccuWeather guidance (highs 26-27°C). High humidity above 80% and urban heat effects at Baiyun International Airport could push observed maxima higher; watch China Meteorological Administration updates overnight for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$7,936Дата завершення
May 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 68% implied probability to a high of 28°C or higher in Guangzhou on May 16, driven by the latest forecast model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing peak temperatures near 28°C amid persistent subtropical warmth from a weakening high-pressure ridge over southern China. Recent observations confirm the trend, with May 14 highs reaching around 32°C and May 15 forecasts near 30°C, but incoming easterly winds carrying moist air increase thunderstorm risk, potentially capping intensity as reflected in 18% odds for exactly 27°C per BBC and AccuWeather guidance (highs 26-27°C). High humidity above 80% and urban heat effects at Baiyun International Airport could push observed maxima higher; watch China Meteorological Administration updates overnight for refinements ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання