Recent polling aggregates from Léger, Nanos, Pallas Data, and others place the CAQ at 21–24% support in the October 5, 2026 election, well behind the PQ’s 27–29% lead and near the Liberals. Seat models from 338Canada and similar forecasters project the CAQ winning a median of roughly 19 seats, with wide ranges (1–38) reflecting tight PQ–CAQ contests in francophone ridings outside Montreal and variable vote efficiency. The party’s decline from its 2022 majority stems from voter fatigue after eight years in power, new leader Christine Fréchette’s limited honeymoon effect, and criticism over spending overruns and economic management highlighted in recent leaders’ debates. These factors underpin trader pricing that clusters around 20–30+ seats while leaving room for late shifts in regional turnout or campaign momentum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено30+ 39%
20-24 29%
25-29 29%
15-19 10.2%
$17,882 Обс.
$17,882 Обс.
Oct 5, 2026
<5
1%
5-9
3%
10-14
4%
15-19
12%
20-24
29%
25-29
29%
30+
39%
30+ 39%
20-24 29%
25-29 29%
15-19 10.2%
$17,882 Обс.
$17,882 Обс.
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$827 Обс.
1%
5-9
$1,320 Обс.
3%
10-14
$3,335 Обс.
4%
15-19
$1,808 Обс.
12%
20-24
$3,420 Обс.
29%
25-29
$1,536 Обс.
29%
30+
$5,635 Обс.
39%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates from Léger, Nanos, Pallas Data, and others place the CAQ at 21–24% support in the October 5, 2026 election, well behind the PQ’s 27–29% lead and near the Liberals. Seat models from 338Canada and similar forecasters project the CAQ winning a median of roughly 19 seats, with wide ranges (1–38) reflecting tight PQ–CAQ contests in francophone ridings outside Montreal and variable vote efficiency. The party’s decline from its 2022 majority stems from voter fatigue after eight years in power, new leader Christine Fréchette’s limited honeymoon effect, and criticism over spending overruns and economic management highlighted in recent leaders’ debates. These factors underpin trader pricing that clusters around 20–30+ seats while leaving room for late shifts in regional turnout or campaign momentum.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Обсяг
$17,882Дата завершення
Oct 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates from Léger, Nanos, Pallas Data, and others place the CAQ at 21–24% support in the October 5, 2026 election, well behind the PQ’s 27–29% lead and near the Liberals. Seat models from 338Canada and similar forecasters project the CAQ winning a median of roughly 19 seats, with wide ranges (1–38) reflecting tight PQ–CAQ contests in francophone ridings outside Montreal and variable vote efficiency. The party’s decline from its 2022 majority stems from voter fatigue after eight years in power, new leader Christine Fréchette’s limited honeymoon effect, and criticism over spending overruns and economic management highlighted in recent leaders’ debates. These factors underpin trader pricing that clusters around 20–30+ seats while leaving room for late shifts in regional turnout or campaign momentum.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Обсяг
$17,882Дата завершення
Oct 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates from Léger, Nanos, Pallas Data, and others place the CAQ at 21–24% support in the October 5, 2026 election, well behind the PQ’s 27–29% lead and near the Liberals. Seat models from 338Canada and similar forecasters project the CAQ winning a median of roughly 19 seats, with wide ranges (1–38) reflecting tight PQ–CAQ contests in francophone ridings outside Montreal and variable vote efficiency. The party’s decline from its 2022 majority stems from voter fatigue after eight years in power, new leader Christine Fréchette’s limited honeymoon effect, and criticism over spending overruns and economic management highlighted in recent leaders’ debates. These factors underpin trader pricing that clusters around 20–30+ seats while leaving room for late shifts in regional turnout or campaign momentum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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