The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquakes drives the strong market consensus against such an event before 2027. These megathrust quakes occur only along specific subduction zones when accumulated strain releases in rare, massive slips, with just four recorded in the instrumental era and none since the 2011 Tohoku event. USGS seismic monitoring through mid-2026 shows typical moderate activity worldwide, including several 7.0–7.5 events but no 8.0+ shocks or unusual foreshock patterns that would signal imminent escalation. Historical recurrence intervals for 9.0+ events often span decades, and current tectonic strain accumulation rates do not indicate rapid buildup toward threshold conditions in the remaining months. While an unexpected major rupture on a high-risk fault like Cascadia remains theoretically possible, the short timeframe and absence of precursors keep implied odds heavily weighted against it.