Friedrich Merz has led a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government since his election as chancellor in May 2025, with the next scheduled federal election not due until 2029. Low approval ratings, rising AfD support in polls, and internal party tensions—including open criticism during a July 2026 Bundestag rebellion—have created pressure, yet the German constitutional framework requires a chancellor-initiated confidence vote or presidential action to trigger early elections. Recent state contests and budget negotiations have not produced a parliamentary majority shift capable of forcing resignation or collapse by year-end. Traders price an 82.5% chance Merz remains in office through December 2026, reflecting the high institutional barriers to removal absent a major coalition fracture or self-initiated early vote.