The limited May 2026 Andes hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship, involving just 13 total cases and three deaths before containment by mid-June, underpins the 96.3% market-implied odds against a 2026 pandemic. Official CDC and WHO surveillance confirmed person-to-person spread only through prolonged close contact, with no rodents aboard and no sustained community transmission detected despite international monitoring of exposed passengers from 23 countries. Epidemiological data show Andes virus, while capable of limited human transmission unlike most hantaviruses, has never produced widespread epidemics, consistent with historical patterns of rodent-borne spillover remaining geographically constrained. Traders assign near-certainty to "No" because new model runs and case reporting through August reveal no escalation, though undetected chains in remote areas or a novel strain with enhanced aerosol efficiency could theoretically alter the trajectory before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年漢坦病毒大流行？
2026年漢坦病毒大流行？
是
4% 機率
$17,820,645 交易量
$17,820,645 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 機率
$17,820,645 交易量
$17,820,645 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The limited May 2026 Andes hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship, involving just 13 total cases and three deaths before containment by mid-June, underpins the 96.3% market-implied odds against a 2026 pandemic. Official CDC and WHO surveillance confirmed person-to-person spread only through prolonged close contact, with no rodents aboard and no sustained community transmission detected despite international monitoring of exposed passengers from 23 countries. Epidemiological data show Andes virus, while capable of limited human transmission unlike most hantaviruses, has never produced widespread epidemics, consistent with historical patterns of rodent-borne spillover remaining geographically constrained. Traders assign near-certainty to "No" because new model runs and case reporting through August reveal no escalation, though undetected chains in remote areas or a novel strain with enhanced aerosol efficiency could theoretically alter the trajectory before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
交易量
$17,820,645結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The limited May 2026 Andes hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship, involving just 13 total cases and three deaths before containment by mid-June, underpins the 96.3% market-implied odds against a 2026 pandemic. Official CDC and WHO surveillance confirmed person-to-person spread only through prolonged close contact, with no rodents aboard and no sustained community transmission detected despite international monitoring of exposed passengers from 23 countries. Epidemiological data show Andes virus, while capable of limited human transmission unlike most hantaviruses, has never produced widespread epidemics, consistent with historical patterns of rodent-borne spillover remaining geographically constrained. Traders assign near-certainty to "No" because new model runs and case reporting through August reveal no escalation, though undetected chains in remote areas or a novel strain with enhanced aerosol efficiency could theoretically alter the trajectory before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$17,820,645結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The limited May 2026 Andes hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship, involving just 13 total cases and three deaths before containment by mid-June, underpins the 96.3% market-implied odds against a 2026 pandemic. Official CDC and WHO surveillance confirmed person-to-person spread only through prolonged close contact, with no rodents aboard and no sustained community transmission detected despite international monitoring of exposed passengers from 23 countries. Epidemiological data show Andes virus, while capable of limited human transmission unlike most hantaviruses, has never produced widespread epidemics, consistent with historical patterns of rodent-borne spillover remaining geographically constrained. Traders assign near-certainty to "No" because new model runs and case reporting through August reveal no escalation, though undetected chains in remote areas or a novel strain with enhanced aerosol efficiency could theoretically alter the trajectory before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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