Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a high of 30°C or higher in Guangzhou today, backed by unanimous forecast model agreement from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, projecting peaks of 31–33°C under a strengthening subtropical ridge, low humidity, and abundant solar heating. Morning observations at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport already surpass 28°C with minimal cloud interference, consistent with May climatology where average highs hit 30°C amid seasonal warming. Realistic challenges—such as an unforeseen marine inflow or convective cloud burst capping daytime heating—remain improbable per current soundings, with final hourly data expected by evening local time to confirm resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月15日廣州最高溫度?
30°C或以上 100.0%
20°C或以下 <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$29,603 交易量
$29,603 交易量
20°C或以下
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C或以上
是
30°C或以上 100.0%
20°C或以下 <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$29,603 交易量
$29,603 交易量
20°C或以下
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C或以上
是
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a high of 30°C or higher in Guangzhou today, backed by unanimous forecast model agreement from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, projecting peaks of 31–33°C under a strengthening subtropical ridge, low humidity, and abundant solar heating. Morning observations at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport already surpass 28°C with minimal cloud interference, consistent with May climatology where average highs hit 30°C amid seasonal warming. Realistic challenges—such as an unforeseen marine inflow or convective cloud burst capping daytime heating—remain improbable per current soundings, with final hourly data expected by evening local time to confirm resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions