**The market consensus for a 32°C daily maximum in Hong Kong on August 4, 2026, reflects the official Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) recording of exactly that value at its headquarters station.** Early August climatology shows typical Observatory maxima of 31–33°C under the prevailing southwest monsoon, with modest day-to-day variability driven by cloud cover, humidity, and local wind patterns. On this date, surface observations aligned with the upper end of the normal range without crossing into the next bracket, consistent with model guidance and real-time station data. Traders placed overwhelming volume on the 32°C outcome once preliminary HKO readings and regional station reports became available, as the resolution criteria hinge strictly on the Observatory’s official daily maximum. Scenarios that could have altered the result—such as stronger afternoon convection lowering the peak or clearer skies pushing it to 33°C or higher—did not materialize. With the date now passed and the authoritative measurement confirmed, the near-certain pricing simply aggregates the skin-in-the-game assessment of the verified observation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日香港最高溫度？
8月4日香港最高溫度？
32°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$240,052 交易量
$240,052 交易量
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$240,052 交易量
$240,052 交易量
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
**The market consensus for a 32°C daily maximum in Hong Kong on August 4, 2026, reflects the official Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) recording of exactly that value at its headquarters station.** Early August climatology shows typical Observatory maxima of 31–33°C under the prevailing southwest monsoon, with modest day-to-day variability driven by cloud cover, humidity, and local wind patterns. On this date, surface observations aligned with the upper end of the normal range without crossing into the next bracket, consistent with model guidance and real-time station data. Traders placed overwhelming volume on the 32°C outcome once preliminary HKO readings and regional station reports became available, as the resolution criteria hinge strictly on the Observatory’s official daily maximum. Scenarios that could have altered the result—such as stronger afternoon convection lowering the peak or clearer skies pushing it to 33°C or higher—did not materialize. With the date now passed and the authoritative measurement confirmed, the near-certain pricing simply aggregates the skin-in-the-game assessment of the verified observation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions