Official forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office indicate a daytime maximum near 27°C in Moscow on August 5, 2026, under typical late-summer high-pressure conditions with limited moisture and moderate southerly flow. This aligns with climatological averages around 22–24°C and explains the strong 62% market-implied probability for 27°C, followed by 28°C at 24.5%. Ensemble model consensus shows modest warming potential from diurnal heating but low risk of exceeding 29°C absent unexpected advection changes. NOAA station observations will determine final resolution, with traders closely monitoring any afternoon updates that could shift probabilities toward adjacent bins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月5日莫斯科最高溫度?
27°C 65%
28°C 27%
26°C 4%
29°C 3%
$17,751 交易量
$17,751 交易量
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
4%
27°C
63%
28°C
27%
29°C
3%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C或以上
<1%
27°C 65%
28°C 27%
26°C 4%
29°C 3%
$17,751 交易量
$17,751 交易量
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
4%
27°C
63%
28°C
27%
29°C
3%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C或以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office indicate a daytime maximum near 27°C in Moscow on August 5, 2026, under typical late-summer high-pressure conditions with limited moisture and moderate southerly flow. This aligns with climatological averages around 22–24°C and explains the strong 62% market-implied probability for 27°C, followed by 28°C at 24.5%. Ensemble model consensus shows modest warming potential from diurnal heating but low risk of exceeding 29°C absent unexpected advection changes. NOAA station observations will determine final resolution, with traders closely monitoring any afternoon updates that could shift probabilities toward adjacent bins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions