Illinois's 2nd Congressional District has long favored Democratic candidates, with the seat held by the party since the 1950s and recent general election margins exceeding 30 points. Incumbent Robin Kelly's decision to run for Senate created an open seat, but the March 2026 Democratic primary produced nominee Donna Miller after a competitive field that included former Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. All major race ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Mike Noack. The implied probability in trader consensus reflects the district's voter composition, consistent past results, and absence of developments that would alter the structural advantage. A late scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the outcome, though both remain low-probability factors based on current evidence.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$33,686 交易量
$33,686 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
97%
共和黨
1%
$33,686 交易量
$33,686 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$14,437 交易量
97%
共和黨
$19,249 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 2nd Congressional District has long favored Democratic candidates, with the seat held by the party since the 1950s and recent general election margins exceeding 30 points. Incumbent Robin Kelly's decision to run for Senate created an open seat, but the March 2026 Democratic primary produced nominee Donna Miller after a competitive field that included former Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. All major race ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Mike Noack. The implied probability in trader consensus reflects the district's voter composition, consistent past results, and absence of developments that would alter the structural advantage. A late scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the outcome, though both remain low-probability factors based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$33,686結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 2nd Congressional District has long favored Democratic candidates, with the seat held by the party since the 1950s and recent general election margins exceeding 30 points. Incumbent Robin Kelly's decision to run for Senate created an open seat, but the March 2026 Democratic primary produced nominee Donna Miller after a competitive field that included former Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. All major race ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Mike Noack. The implied probability in trader consensus reflects the district's voter composition, consistent past results, and absence of developments that would alter the structural advantage. A late scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the outcome, though both remain low-probability factors based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$33,686結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETIllinois's 2nd Congressional District has long favored Democratic candidates, with the seat held by the party since the 1950s and recent general election margins exceeding 30 points. Incumbent Robin Kelly's decision to run for Senate created an open seat, but the March 2026 Democratic primary produced nominee Donna Miller after a competitive field that included former Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. All major race ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Mike Noack. The implied probability in trader consensus reflects the district's voter composition, consistent past results, and absence of developments that would alter the structural advantage. A late scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the outcome, though both remain low-probability factors based on current evidence.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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