Donna Miller's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary has solidified her as the nominee in the solidly Democratic IL-02, a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 that has delivered consistent large margins for Democrats, including 67% for retiring incumbent Robin Kelly in 2024. Rated Safe Democratic by forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race pits Miller—a Cook County commissioner backed by substantial AIPAC funding—against Republican Mike Noack, reflecting trader consensus at 94.5% for a Democratic hold amid minimal Republican fundraising and historical precedents. While no major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, scenarios like a Democratic scandal, candidate health issues, or an extreme national midterm wave could challenge this outlook ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$30,650 交易量
$30,650 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
95%
共和黨
4%
$30,650 交易量
$30,650 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
$12,145 交易量
95%
共和黨
$18,505 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Donna Miller's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary has solidified her as the nominee in the solidly Democratic IL-02, a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 that has delivered consistent large margins for Democrats, including 67% for retiring incumbent Robin Kelly in 2024. Rated Safe Democratic by forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race pits Miller—a Cook County commissioner backed by substantial AIPAC funding—against Republican Mike Noack, reflecting trader consensus at 94.5% for a Democratic hold amid minimal Republican fundraising and historical precedents. While no major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, scenarios like a Democratic scandal, candidate health issues, or an extreme national midterm wave could challenge this outlook ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$30,650結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Donna Miller's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary has solidified her as the nominee in the solidly Democratic IL-02, a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 that has delivered consistent large margins for Democrats, including 67% for retiring incumbent Robin Kelly in 2024. Rated Safe Democratic by forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race pits Miller—a Cook County commissioner backed by substantial AIPAC funding—against Republican Mike Noack, reflecting trader consensus at 94.5% for a Democratic hold amid minimal Republican fundraising and historical precedents. While no major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, scenarios like a Democratic scandal, candidate health issues, or an extreme national midterm wave could challenge this outlook ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$30,650結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Donna Miller's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary has solidified her as the nominee in the solidly Democratic IL-02, a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 that has delivered consistent large margins for Democrats, including 67% for retiring incumbent Robin Kelly in 2024. Rated Safe Democratic by forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race pits Miller—a Cook County commissioner backed by substantial AIPAC funding—against Republican Mike Noack, reflecting trader consensus at 94.5% for a Democratic hold amid minimal Republican fundraising and historical precedents. While no major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, scenarios like a Democratic scandal, candidate health issues, or an extreme national midterm wave could challenge this outlook ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions