**Latest forecast models from sources including GFS show Moscow's overnight minimum temperatures on September 4, 2026, holding in the 13–14°C range under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds, though localized radiational cooling under clearer patches or subtle advection of cooler maritime air could push readings lower toward the 11°C threshold.** This positions 11°C as the market's leading outcome at 71.5% implied probability, with nearby values like 10°C (45.5%) and 8°C (42.5%) also attracting significant trader interest due to typical model spread in early-autumn boundary-layer conditions. Historical September normals near 11°C provide a baseline, but current observations and short-range guidance indicate a mild start to the month with limited cold-air intrusion. Key upcoming data releases, including updated NCEP or ECMWF model runs and official Russian meteorological service observations, will refine these probabilities as the 24-hour minimum window closes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月4日莫斯科最低溫度？
9月4日莫斯科最低溫度？
11°C 94%
8°C 87%
6°C或以下 71%
7°C 49%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
6°C或以下
71%
7°C
49%
8°C
87%
9°C
3%
10°C
17%
11°C
71%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C或更高
<1%
11°C 94%
8°C 87%
6°C或以下 71%
7°C 49%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
6°C或以下
$57 交易量
71%
7°C
$105 交易量
49%
8°C
$88 交易量
87%
9°C
$83 交易量
3%
10°C
$50 交易量
17%
11°C
$111 交易量
71%
12°C
$179 交易量
<1%
13°C
$139 交易量
<1%
14°C
$279 交易量
<1%
15°C
$35 交易量
<1%
16°C或更高
$40 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest forecast models from sources including GFS show Moscow's overnight minimum temperatures on September 4, 2026, holding in the 13–14°C range under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds, though localized radiational cooling under clearer patches or subtle advection of cooler maritime air could push readings lower toward the 11°C threshold.**
This positions 11°C as the market's leading outcome at 71.5% implied probability, with nearby values like 10°C (45.5%) and 8°C (42.5%) also attracting significant trader interest due to typical model spread in early-autumn boundary-layer conditions. Historical September normals near 11°C provide a baseline, but current observations and short-range guidance indicate a mild start to the month with limited cold-air intrusion. Key upcoming data releases, including updated NCEP or ECMWF model runs and official Russian meteorological service observations, will refine these probabilities as the 24-hour minimum window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$1,166結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest forecast models from sources including GFS show Moscow's overnight minimum temperatures on September 4, 2026, holding in the 13–14°C range under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds, though localized radiational cooling under clearer patches or subtle advection of cooler maritime air could push readings lower toward the 11°C threshold.**
This positions 11°C as the market's leading outcome at 71.5% implied probability, with nearby values like 10°C (45.5%) and 8°C (42.5%) also attracting significant trader interest due to typical model spread in early-autumn boundary-layer conditions. Historical September normals near 11°C provide a baseline, but current observations and short-range guidance indicate a mild start to the month with limited cold-air intrusion. Key upcoming data releases, including updated NCEP or ECMWF model runs and official Russian meteorological service observations, will refine these probabilities as the 24-hour minimum window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,166結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Latest forecast models from sources including GFS show Moscow's overnight minimum temperatures on September 4, 2026, holding in the 13–14°C range under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly winds, though localized radiational cooling under clearer patches or subtle advection of cooler maritime air could push readings lower toward the 11°C threshold.** This positions 11°C as the market's leading outcome at 71.5% implied probability, with nearby values like 10°C (45.5%) and 8°C (42.5%) also attracting significant trader interest due to typical model spread in early-autumn boundary-layer conditions. Historical September normals near 11°C provide a baseline, but current observations and short-range guidance indicate a mild start to the month with limited cold-air intrusion. Key upcoming data releases, including updated NCEP or ECMWF model runs and official Russian meteorological service observations, will refine these probabilities as the 24-hour minimum window closes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions