Ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts project an overnight low near 10°C at the Paris-Le Bourget station on May 17, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge that limits cooler maritime air advection across the Paris basin. This aligns closely with May climatological normals of 9–11°C and current surface observations showing stable conditions with minimal radiative cooling or frontal activity. The resulting trader consensus, reflected in 97.5% implied probability for the 10°C outcome, underscores narrow model agreement on these factors. An unexpected intensification of nocturnal cooling or a late-arriving weather front could still push the official minimum toward 9°C or 11°C before resolution at 12:00 UTC.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日巴黎最低溫度?
10°C 97.5%
9°C 2.4%
11°C <1%
8°C <1%
$7,566 交易量
$7,566 交易量
2°C或以下
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
98%
11°C
<1%
12°C或以上
<1%
10°C 97.5%
9°C 2.4%
11°C <1%
8°C <1%
$7,566 交易量
$7,566 交易量
2°C或以下
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
98%
11°C
<1%
12°C或以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts project an overnight low near 10°C at the Paris-Le Bourget station on May 17, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge that limits cooler maritime air advection across the Paris basin. This aligns closely with May climatological normals of 9–11°C and current surface observations showing stable conditions with minimal radiative cooling or frontal activity. The resulting trader consensus, reflected in 97.5% implied probability for the 10°C outcome, underscores narrow model agreement on these factors. An unexpected intensification of nocturnal cooling or a late-arriving weather front could still push the official minimum toward 9°C or 11°C before resolution at 12:00 UTC.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions