Ongoing extreme heatwave conditions across South Korea, with KMA severe alerts and daytime maxima near 34–37°C, are suppressing nocturnal radiative cooling and elevating the morning minimum at Incheon International Airport. Clear skies, light winds, strong subsidence, and elevated humidity limit temperature drops, producing forecast lows of 26–28°C—well above the seasonal ~22–23°C baseline. This consensus from short-range models underpins the 98.2% market-implied probability for exactly 28°C. A realistic shift could occur with unanticipated afternoon or overnight cloud cover, localized precipitation, or altered steering patterns that enhance mixing and allow greater cooling before the 3–9 AM observation window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月5日首爾(仁川)最低溫度?
28°C 95.3%
27°C 1.1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$13,488 交易量
$13,488 交易量
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
95%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 95.3%
27°C 1.1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$13,488 交易量
$13,488 交易量
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
95%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ongoing extreme heatwave conditions across South Korea, with KMA severe alerts and daytime maxima near 34–37°C, are suppressing nocturnal radiative cooling and elevating the morning minimum at Incheon International Airport. Clear skies, light winds, strong subsidence, and elevated humidity limit temperature drops, producing forecast lows of 26–28°C—well above the seasonal ~22–23°C baseline. This consensus from short-range models underpins the 98.2% market-implied probability for exactly 28°C. A realistic shift could occur with unanticipated afternoon or overnight cloud cover, localized precipitation, or altered steering patterns that enhance mixing and allow greater cooling before the 3–9 AM observation window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions