**Trader sentiment for Tokyo's June 17 minimum temperature reflects genuine short-range forecast uncertainty during the early tsuyu rainy season, with the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) indicating mostly cloudy conditions and a modeled overnight low near 17–20 °C.** This places the modal outcomes around the 16–23 °C bands (each ~34–36 %), while the 40.5 % implied probability on 15 °C or below captures the realistic downside risk from enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling under partial clearing or a modest cool-air intrusion. Historical June climatology at Tokyo stations shows daily minima tightly clustered near 18–21 °C under stable high-humidity flow; deviations arise primarily from cloud-cover variations and the precise timing of weak frontal passages or sea-breeze modulation. With resolution less than 48 hours away, the next JMA and ensemble model runs will tighten the range by clarifying overnight sky cover and boundary-layer moisture, directly shifting probabilities among the closely matched central outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於6月17日東京最低氣溫？
6月17日東京最低氣溫？
20°C 30%
19°C 24%
22°C 21%
16°C 18%
最新
最新
2026-06-17
15°C或以下
8%
16°C
18%
17°C
16%
18°C
16%
19°C
24%
20°C
30%
21°C
10%
22°C
21%
23°C
16%
24°C
2%
25°C或以上
<1%
20°C 30%
19°C 24%
22°C 21%
16°C 18%
最新
最新
2026-06-17
15°C或以下
$22 交易量
8%
16°C
$22 交易量
18%
17°C
$0 交易量
16%
18°C
$0 交易量
16%
19°C
$0 交易量
24%
20°C
$0 交易量
30%
21°C
$8 交易量
10%
22°C
$29 交易量
21%
23°C
$0 交易量
16%
24°C
$0 交易量
2%
25°C或以上
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Tokyo's June 17 minimum temperature reflects genuine short-range forecast uncertainty during the early tsuyu rainy season, with the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) indicating mostly cloudy conditions and a modeled overnight low near 17–20 °C.**
This places the modal outcomes around the 16–23 °C bands (each ~34–36 %), while the 40.5 % implied probability on 15 °C or below captures the realistic downside risk from enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling under partial clearing or a modest cool-air intrusion. Historical June climatology at Tokyo stations shows daily minima tightly clustered near 18–21 °C under stable high-humidity flow; deviations arise primarily from cloud-cover variations and the precise timing of weak frontal passages or sea-breeze modulation.
With resolution less than 48 hours away, the next JMA and ensemble model runs will tighten the range by clarifying overnight sky cover and boundary-layer moisture, directly shifting probabilities among the closely matched central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jun 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$22結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Jun 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Tokyo's June 17 minimum temperature reflects genuine short-range forecast uncertainty during the early tsuyu rainy season, with the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) indicating mostly cloudy conditions and a modeled overnight low near 17–20 °C.**
This places the modal outcomes around the 16–23 °C bands (each ~34–36 %), while the 40.5 % implied probability on 15 °C or below captures the realistic downside risk from enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling under partial clearing or a modest cool-air intrusion. Historical June climatology at Tokyo stations shows daily minima tightly clustered near 18–21 °C under stable high-humidity flow; deviations arise primarily from cloud-cover variations and the precise timing of weak frontal passages or sea-breeze modulation.
With resolution less than 48 hours away, the next JMA and ensemble model runs will tighten the range by clarifying overnight sky cover and boundary-layer moisture, directly shifting probabilities among the closely matched central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$22結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Jun 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ET**Trader sentiment for Tokyo's June 17 minimum temperature reflects genuine short-range forecast uncertainty during the early tsuyu rainy season, with the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) indicating mostly cloudy conditions and a modeled overnight low near 17–20 °C.** This places the modal outcomes around the 16–23 °C bands (each ~34–36 %), while the 40.5 % implied probability on 15 °C or below captures the realistic downside risk from enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling under partial clearing or a modest cool-air intrusion. Historical June climatology at Tokyo stations shows daily minima tightly clustered near 18–21 °C under stable high-humidity flow; deviations arise primarily from cloud-cover variations and the precise timing of weak frontal passages or sea-breeze modulation. With resolution less than 48 hours away, the next JMA and ensemble model runs will tighten the range by clarifying overnight sky cover and boundary-layer moisture, directly shifting probabilities among the closely matched central outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions