Recent official forecasts and observational data from Polish meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature of 12°C in Warsaw on September 3, driven by moderate overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light southwesterly winds and surface temperatures stabilizing near that level after daytime highs around 23–25°C. Numerical weather prediction models show strong consensus on this threshold, aligning with climatological norms for early September where overnight lows typically range 10–14°C. The market's 97.5% implied probability for 12°C reflects trader confidence in this consensus, with limited room for deviation unless unforecasted clearer conditions enhance cooling or station-specific microclimate effects alter the recorded minimum. Final resolution depends on the official daily minimum from authorized monitoring stations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月3日華沙的最低溫度？
9月3日華沙的最低溫度？
12°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$2,828 交易量
$2,828 交易量
2026-09-03
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$2,828 交易量
$2,828 交易量
2026-09-03
9°C or below
$632 交易量
No
10°C
$361 交易量
No
11°C
$178 交易量
No
12°C
$669 交易量
Yes
13°C
$267 交易量
No
14°C
$220 交易量
No
15°C
$292 交易量
No
16°C
$52 交易量
No
17°C
$32 交易量
No
18°C
$62 交易量
No
19°C or higher
$62 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts and observational data from Polish meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature of 12°C in Warsaw on September 3, driven by moderate overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light southwesterly winds and surface temperatures stabilizing near that level after daytime highs around 23–25°C. Numerical weather prediction models show strong consensus on this threshold, aligning with climatological norms for early September where overnight lows typically range 10–14°C. The market's 97.5% implied probability for 12°C reflects trader confidence in this consensus, with limited room for deviation unless unforecasted clearer conditions enhance cooling or station-specific microclimate effects alter the recorded minimum. Final resolution depends on the official daily minimum from authorized monitoring stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,828結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts and observational data from Polish meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature of 12°C in Warsaw on September 3, driven by moderate overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light southwesterly winds and surface temperatures stabilizing near that level after daytime highs around 23–25°C. Numerical weather prediction models show strong consensus on this threshold, aligning with climatological norms for early September where overnight lows typically range 10–14°C. The market's 97.5% implied probability for 12°C reflects trader confidence in this consensus, with limited room for deviation unless unforecasted clearer conditions enhance cooling or station-specific microclimate effects alter the recorded minimum. Final resolution depends on the official daily minimum from authorized monitoring stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,828結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Recent official forecasts and observational data from Polish meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature of 12°C in Warsaw on September 3, driven by moderate overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light southwesterly winds and surface temperatures stabilizing near that level after daytime highs around 23–25°C. Numerical weather prediction models show strong consensus on this threshold, aligning with climatological norms for early September where overnight lows typically range 10–14°C. The market's 97.5% implied probability for 12°C reflects trader confidence in this consensus, with limited room for deviation unless unforecasted clearer conditions enhance cooling or station-specific microclimate effects alter the recorded minimum. Final resolution depends on the official daily minimum from authorized monitoring stations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions