Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles indicate radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light northerly winds will drive Wellington’s overnight minimum to 6°C on September 12. Surface observations and satellite-derived boundary-layer data support this consensus, aligning with the 99.5% market-implied probability for a 6°C low. Historical September minima average near 9°C, so the cooler outcome reflects a transient high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and mixing. Traders assign negligible odds to 5°C or lower because model spread remains narrow and no cold-air advection is expected. A sudden increase in low-level cloud or a wind shift from the south could raise the minimum by 1–2°C, though such changes appear unlikely before official daily minimum reporting concludes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月12日惠靈頓的最低溫度？
9月12日惠靈頓的最低溫度？
6°C 100.0%
4°C或以下 <1%
5°C <1%
7°C <1%
$877 交易量
$877 交易量
2026-09-12
4°C或以下
否
5°C
否
6°C
是
7°C
否
8°C
否
9°C
否
10°C
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C或以上
否
6°C 100.0%
4°C或以下 <1%
5°C <1%
7°C <1%
$877 交易量
$877 交易量
2026-09-12
4°C或以下
$153 交易量
否
5°C
$22 交易量
否
6°C
$105 交易量
是
7°C
$45 交易量
否
8°C
$112 交易量
否
9°C
$191 交易量
否
10°C
$235 交易量
否
11°C
$0 交易量
否
12°C
$15 交易量
否
13°C
$0 交易量
否
14°C或以上
$0 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles indicate radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light northerly winds will drive Wellington’s overnight minimum to 6°C on September 12. Surface observations and satellite-derived boundary-layer data support this consensus, aligning with the 99.5% market-implied probability for a 6°C low. Historical September minima average near 9°C, so the cooler outcome reflects a transient high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and mixing. Traders assign negligible odds to 5°C or lower because model spread remains narrow and no cold-air advection is expected. A sudden increase in low-level cloud or a wind shift from the south could raise the minimum by 1–2°C, though such changes appear unlikely before official daily minimum reporting concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$877結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles indicate radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light northerly winds will drive Wellington’s overnight minimum to 6°C on September 12. Surface observations and satellite-derived boundary-layer data support this consensus, aligning with the 99.5% market-implied probability for a 6°C low. Historical September minima average near 9°C, so the cooler outcome reflects a transient high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and mixing. Traders assign negligible odds to 5°C or lower because model spread remains narrow and no cold-air advection is expected. A sudden increase in low-level cloud or a wind shift from the south could raise the minimum by 1–2°C, though such changes appear unlikely before official daily minimum reporting concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$877結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles indicate radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light northerly winds will drive Wellington’s overnight minimum to 6°C on September 12. Surface observations and satellite-derived boundary-layer data support this consensus, aligning with the 99.5% market-implied probability for a 6°C low. Historical September minima average near 9°C, so the cooler outcome reflects a transient high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and mixing. Traders assign negligible odds to 5°C or lower because model spread remains narrow and no cold-air advection is expected. A sudden increase in low-level cloud or a wind shift from the south could raise the minimum by 1–2°C, though such changes appear unlikely before official daily minimum reporting concludes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions