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icon for 馬克龍出局時間是... ？
政治·法國

馬克龍出局時間是... ？

icon for 馬克龍出局時間是... ？
政治·法國

馬克龍出局時間是... ？

$1,962,296 交易量

2026-06-30
Polymarket

$1,962,296 交易量

Polymarket

2026年6月30日

$370,451 交易量

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between October 6, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.French President Emmanuel Macron maintains a firm grip on the presidency amid chronic parliamentary instability stemming from the 2024 snap elections, which yielded a hung National Assembly lacking a clear majority and prompted several prime ministerial turnovers. No-confidence motions targeting governments in late 2025 and January 2026 were defeated, enabling delayed 2026 budget passage via special measures. Macron has repeatedly rejected resignation calls, confirming he will depart politics after his term concludes in May 2027, with no viable impeachment path under France's constitution. Absent notable developments in the past 30 days—like official statements or scandals—trader consensus reflects low near-term exit risks, though fiscal deadlines and coalition pressures could influence longer-horizon probabilities ahead of the 2027 presidential vote.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$1,962,296
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2025, 5:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between October 6, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.French President Emmanuel Macron maintains a firm grip on the presidency amid chronic parliamentary instability stemming from the 2024 snap elections, which yielded a hung National Assembly lacking a clear majority and prompted several prime ministerial turnovers. No-confidence motions targeting governments in late 2025 and January 2026 were defeated, enabling delayed 2026 budget passage via special measures. Macron has repeatedly rejected resignation calls, confirming he will depart politics after his term concludes in May 2027, with no viable impeachment path under France's constitution. Absent notable developments in the past 30 days—like official statements or scandals—trader consensus reflects low near-term exit risks, though fiscal deadlines and coalition pressures could influence longer-horizon probabilities ahead of the 2027 presidential vote.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$1,962,296
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2025, 5:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"馬克龍出局時間是... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年6月30日" at 1%, followed by "2025年10月31日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 1¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 1% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "馬克龍出局時間是... ？" has generated $2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "馬克龍出局時間是... ？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "馬克龍出局時間是... ？" is "2026年6月30日" at just 1%, with "2025年10月31日" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "馬克龍出局時間是... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.