Recent low winter maximum extent near 14.29 million sq km and below-average July conditions, with Arctic-wide coverage at 6.62 million sq km on July 30 and further decline to about 6.2 million by mid-August, have elevated implied probabilities for a September minimum in the 4.4–4.8 million sq km range. Key variables include persistent warmth along the Atlantic margin accelerating melt, variable wind-driven ice export or compaction, ocean heat content influencing bottom melt, and late-summer weather patterns that can slow or intensify loss. NSIDC monitoring and updated seasonal forecasts will refine outcomes ahead of the typical early-to-mid September minimum, where historical analogs and current thickness data support the current market distribution amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於今年夏天北極海冰範圍最小？
今年夏天北極海冰範圍最小？
440-460萬平方公里 27.6%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里 22.0%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里 15.7%
少於400萬平方公里 12%
$68,005 交易量
$68,005 交易量
2026-10-01
少於400萬平方公里
12%
400萬至420萬平方公里
7%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里
16%
440-460萬平方公里
33%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里
22%
480-500萬平方公里
9%
500萬平方公里以上
2%
440-460萬平方公里 27.6%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里 22.0%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里 15.7%
少於400萬平方公里 12%
$68,005 交易量
$68,005 交易量
2026-10-01
少於400萬平方公里
$30,474 交易量
12%
400萬至420萬平方公里
$6,580 交易量
7%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里
$3,097 交易量
16%
440-460萬平方公里
$3,128 交易量
33%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里
$6,805 交易量
22%
480-500萬平方公里
$3,447 交易量
9%
500萬平方公里以上
$14,474 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum extent near 14.29 million sq km and below-average July conditions, with Arctic-wide coverage at 6.62 million sq km on July 30 and further decline to about 6.2 million by mid-August, have elevated implied probabilities for a September minimum in the 4.4–4.8 million sq km range. Key variables include persistent warmth along the Atlantic margin accelerating melt, variable wind-driven ice export or compaction, ocean heat content influencing bottom melt, and late-summer weather patterns that can slow or intensify loss. NSIDC monitoring and updated seasonal forecasts will refine outcomes ahead of the typical early-to-mid September minimum, where historical analogs and current thickness data support the current market distribution amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市場開放時間： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$68,005結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum extent near 14.29 million sq km and below-average July conditions, with Arctic-wide coverage at 6.62 million sq km on July 30 and further decline to about 6.2 million by mid-August, have elevated implied probabilities for a September minimum in the 4.4–4.8 million sq km range. Key variables include persistent warmth along the Atlantic margin accelerating melt, variable wind-driven ice export or compaction, ocean heat content influencing bottom melt, and late-summer weather patterns that can slow or intensify loss. NSIDC monitoring and updated seasonal forecasts will refine outcomes ahead of the typical early-to-mid September minimum, where historical analogs and current thickness data support the current market distribution amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$68,005結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent low winter maximum extent near 14.29 million sq km and below-average July conditions, with Arctic-wide coverage at 6.62 million sq km on July 30 and further decline to about 6.2 million by mid-August, have elevated implied probabilities for a September minimum in the 4.4–4.8 million sq km range. Key variables include persistent warmth along the Atlantic margin accelerating melt, variable wind-driven ice export or compaction, ocean heat content influencing bottom melt, and late-summer weather patterns that can slow or intensify loss. NSIDC monitoring and updated seasonal forecasts will refine outcomes ahead of the typical early-to-mid September minimum, where historical analogs and current thickness data support the current market distribution amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions