Recent Met Office data shows the UK's mean temperature from 1 June to 10 August 2026 already at 16.48°C, exceeding the 2025 record of 16.10°C by a wide margin and requiring only average conditions for the remainder of August to establish a new high. Multiple heatwaves, including provisional peaks of 38.1°C at Kew Gardens in mid-August and earlier June extremes above 37°C, have driven this trajectory amid persistent above-average warmth. These verified observations from official monitoring align with trader consensus reflected in the 81% market-implied probability for a record summer, underscoring how current atmospheric patterns and sustained high temperatures have shifted expectations well before full seasonal data are finalized.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於81% 機率
最新
最新
2026-10-01
81% 機率
最新
最新
2026-10-01
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Met Office data shows the UK's mean temperature from 1 June to 10 August 2026 already at 16.48°C, exceeding the 2025 record of 16.10°C by a wide margin and requiring only average conditions for the remainder of August to establish a new high. Multiple heatwaves, including provisional peaks of 38.1°C at Kew Gardens in mid-August and earlier June extremes above 37°C, have driven this trajectory amid persistent above-average warmth. These verified observations from official monitoring align with trader consensus reflected in the 81% market-implied probability for a record summer, underscoring how current atmospheric patterns and sustained high temperatures have shifted expectations well before full seasonal data are finalized.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
交易量
$532結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Met Office data shows the UK's mean temperature from 1 June to 10 August 2026 already at 16.48°C, exceeding the 2025 record of 16.10°C by a wide margin and requiring only average conditions for the remainder of August to establish a new high. Multiple heatwaves, including provisional peaks of 38.1°C at Kew Gardens in mid-August and earlier June extremes above 37°C, have driven this trajectory amid persistent above-average warmth. These verified observations from official monitoring align with trader consensus reflected in the 81% market-implied probability for a record summer, underscoring how current atmospheric patterns and sustained high temperatures have shifted expectations well before full seasonal data are finalized.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$532結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETRecent Met Office data shows the UK's mean temperature from 1 June to 10 August 2026 already at 16.48°C, exceeding the 2025 record of 16.10°C by a wide margin and requiring only average conditions for the remainder of August to establish a new high. Multiple heatwaves, including provisional peaks of 38.1°C at Kew Gardens in mid-August and earlier June extremes above 37°C, have driven this trajectory amid persistent above-average warmth. These verified observations from official monitoring align with trader consensus reflected in the 81% market-implied probability for a record summer, underscoring how current atmospheric patterns and sustained high temperatures have shifted expectations well before full seasonal data are finalized.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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